Kieran Harris
Showing 1–8 of 8 transcripts.
- 80,000 Hours2h 0m
Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine (2022)
Clay Graubard, Robert de Neufville, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris
On April 27, 2022, super forecasters Robert de Nuffel and Clay Graubart analyzed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, contrasting their divergent pre-war probability estimates while dissecting errors in predicting Russian military dominance and Western intelligence contributions. The discussion further explores the field's resurgence driven by institutional funding and the necessity of combining granular domain expertise with probabilistic discipline to navigate nuclear risks and emerging geopolitical flashpoints. Through this analysis, the guests highlight the critical role of diverse information sources and collaborative forecasting in mitigating unknown variables within an increasingly multipolar global landscape.
- 80,000 Hours1h 1m
Marcus Davis on founding and leading Rethink Priorities
Marcus Davis, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris
Rethink Priorities has rapidly expanded from ten to over fifty staff members, operating as a fully remote research entity that splits leadership between Peter Waterford and co-CEO Marcus Davis to manage long-termism alongside animal welfare and global health initiatives. The organization now executes a high-volume consultancy portfolio for major funders like Open Philanthropy, generating documented impacts such as influencing millions in farm animal funding and launching new charities while addressing critical data gaps in wild welfare. To sustain this trajectory and fund upcoming inquiries into interspecies moral weight, RP seeks an additional $3 million in annual support to scale its survey teams and avoid rejecting commissioned work.
- 80,000 Hours44 min
Luisa and Robert Long on how to make independent research more fun (2023)
Robert Long, Luisa Rodriguez, Kieran Harris, Rob Long
Host Kieran Harris interviews independent researchers Rob Long and Louisa about the methodologies and psychology required for effective independent inquiry, specifically contrasting uncertainty modeling in nuclear safety with the higher ambiguity of consciousness research. The discussion highlights how structural supports like co-working and external deadlines combat imposter syndrome and perfectionism, while also examining the necessity of negotiating a balance between altruistic impact and personal intrinsic motivation. Ultimately, the conversation advocates for transparent, provisional publishing and the use of accountability frameworks to help researchers sustain long-term productivity without succumbing to isolation or self-doubt.
- 80,000 Hours2h 39m
Radical honesty & reframing global problems as puzzles | A.J. Jacobs (2020)
A.J. Jacobs, Rob Woodland, Kieran Harris
Author and podcaster AJ Jacobs applies his signature immersive experimentation methodology to diverse fields ranging from utilitarian ethics and effective altruism to personal productivity strategies. His work, which includes books like *The Year of Living Biblically* and *Thanks a Thousand*, advocates for reframing global challenges as solvable puzzles while encouraging donors to view charitable giving as an opportunity rather than a guilt-induced obligation. Currently writing on the power of puzzles and promoting solutions journalism, Jacobs utilizes techniques such as visualizing future selves and leveraging public accountability to drive both personal habits and broader societal shifts toward cooperation and optimism.
- 80,000 Hours1h 0m
Kuhan Jeyapragasan on effective altruism university groups (2022)
Kuhan Jeyapragasan, Rob Wiblin, Keiran, Kieran Harris
Kuhan Jayapragasam transitioned from a Stanford pre-med student to the full-time Program Director of the Stanford Existential Risk Initiative, where he institutionalized community building by scaling the "Intro to EA Fellowship" to over 300 global participants and launching a high-enrollment first-year seminar on preventing human extinction. His leadership focuses on replacing traditional recruitment with rigorous career planning and mentorship pipelines, specifically addressing the gap between student interest and professional roles in fields like AI safety and pandemic prevention. By prioritizing epistemic humility and strategic timing in university organizing, Jayapragasam has helped transform the local group into a staffed operation that serves as a critical model for the Effective Altruism community's professionalization.
- 80,000 Hours1h 15m
Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla on the Shrimp Welfare Project (2022)
Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris
Founded in 2021 by Andres Jimenez-Sorria and Aaron, the Shrimp Welfare Project operates as a strategic consultancy in Vietnam and India to advocate for welfare reforms among the 400 billion farmed shrimp produced annually. The organization prioritizes a business-case approach, demonstrating that reducing overcrowding and eliminating practices like eye stalk ablation lowers mortality rates and increases farmer profitability without antagonizing the industry. With initial support from the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program and the EA Animal Welfare Fund, the team is currently scaling its pilot programs to integrate welfare modules into global certification schemes while exploring legislative leverage in key markets.
- 80,000 Hours2h 36m
Kelsey Piper on the room for important advocacy within journalism
Kelsey Piper, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris, Michelle Hutchinson
Journalist Kelsey Piper discusses Future Perfect, a Rockefeller Foundation-funded vertical at Vox that produces deep, non-polarizing reporting on effective altruism and existential risks while operating independently of traditional page-view incentives. The team employs a high-volume editorial strategy featuring daily story pitches and fact-checking to cover complex topics like AI safety and factory farming, aiming to reach broad audiences without relying on clickbait. Piper further outlines the structural challenges of modern journalism, the necessity of grant-funded models for public-interest work, and the specific skills required for writers to navigate a shrinking, highly competitive media landscape.
- 80,000 Hours2h 32m
Martin Gurri on the revolt of the public & crisis of authority in the information age
Martin Gurri, Rob Wiblin, Kieran Harris, Michelle Hutchinson
The lecture argues that a global information tsunami since 2002 has eroded elite authority and trust, fueling leaderless, nihilistic public revolts driven by a desire to negate the status quo rather than propose alternatives. While this fragmentation makes totalitarianism unlikely in established democracies, it creates high risks for political chaos and instability by prioritizing the demand for authentic over competent governance. To address this structural shift, the speaker advocates for elites to adopt humility and flatten hierarchical structures, warning that failure to rebuild constructive dialogue will sustain a volatile political era.