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Tad Rivelle

Showing 1–3 of 3 transcripts.

  1. Milken Institute56 min

    Macroeconomic Outlook

    Komal Sri-Kumar, Rishi Kapoor, Tad Rivelle, Seema Shah, Nathan Sheets, Christopher Smart

    A panel of five prominent global investors, including Seema Shah and Tad Revell, convened to debate diverging forecasts regarding the US business cycle, global debt sustainability, and the timing of a potential recession between 2020 and 2021. While participants agreed on significant risks from central bank tightening and geopolitical fragmentation, they offered contrasting views on whether current leverage levels and asset prices signal an imminent systemic crisis or a prolonged period of reflation. The session concluded with a detailed analysis of tail risks ranging from Chinese debt opacity to oil price shocks, emphasizing the difficulty of forecasting economic fundamentals in an environment of rapidly shifting monetary policies.

  2. Milken Institute56 min

    Macroeconomic Trends: Monetary and Fiscal Responses

    Brian Sullivan, Seth Carpenter, Dimitri Demekas, Scott Minerd, Tad Rivelle, Paul Sheard

    Panelists Seth Carpenter, Dimitri Demeckis, Scott Miner, Tad Revell, and Paul Sheard debated the efficacy of central bank tools against historical parallels, structural flaws in the Eurozone, and divergent views on negative interest rates and regulation. The session highlighted a fundamental dispute between officials who view current monetary interventions as necessary stabilization and critics who argue these measures merely defer deep-seated economic problems like demographic shifts and unaddressed debt. Ultimately, the group concluded that while the US benefits from favorable demographics, global risks including potential Greek debt defaults and the limitations of a single currency union require coordinated fiscal and structural reforms beyond current monetary capabilities.

  3. Milken Institute1h 1m

    Central Banks: Is Quantitative Easing Becoming Quantitative Exhaustion?

    James McCaughan, Cliff Noreen, Tad Rivelle, Aram Shishmanian, Kevin Warsh, David Zervos, Jim McLaughlin

    A panel of financial experts consensus agrees that while aggressive quantitative easing was necessary to prevent a 2008 collapse, the policy subsequently shifted to generating diminishing returns and exacerbating wealth inequality. Speakers like Kevin Warsh and Jim McLaughlin warn that continued reliance on monetary stimulus has stalled structural reforms, distorted asset prices, and risked a deglobalization wave driven by competitive currency devaluations. Consequently, investors are urged to adjust strategies toward non-traditional fixed income and hedging instruments in anticipation of eventual rate hikes and an exit from the current era of central bank dominance.