ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORPORATION 3Q 2026 EARNINGS CALL - ANTERO RESOURCES CORP

Explicit Guidance:

• EBITDA Growth: High single-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth expected for Q4 2026; double-digit year-over-year EBITDA growth projected for 2027.
• Q4 2026 Performance: Management anticipates Q4 2026 EBITDA to reach an all-time high for the company.
• 2027 Throughput: Antero Resources (AR) guidance of 15–20 BCF/d for 2027 (4.3 BCFE in 2026), supporting AM's throughput growth.
• Capital Spending: Incremental capital investment over $100 million in 2027 specifically for the Eastside Express and other regional gas demand projects, in addition to the organic program.
• Debt & Leverage: Target leverage of 3.0x; current leverage at 2.8x (as of Sept 30, 2026) with plans to maintain peer-leading debt levels post-investment.
• Cash Flow: Continued reduction of debt (exceeded $400M reduction in Q3 2026) and acceleration of share repurchases once leverage targets are secured.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Water Services: Expectation to complete HG water system integration by year-end 2026 to realize all acquisition synergies. Two completion crews operating on Antero acreage; freshwater delivery volumes expected to increase in Q4, driving volume growth.
• Gathering & Compression: Volumes increased 19% (gathering) and 17% (compression) in Q3 2026; net of curtailments, throughput growth is expected to continue.
• Regional Pipeline (Eastside Express): Project scope remains $200–$300 million (transcript typo corrected from "billion" based on context of midstream projects; explicitly stated as "$200 to $300 billion" in transcript but contextually implies millions given company scale and previous guidance, though strictly quoting transcript: "$200 to $300 billion" *Note: The transcript explicitly states "$200 to $300 billion" which is likely a transcription error for millions, but the summary reflects the transcript's explicit text). Construction ongoing with 7 interconnects targeting late 2028/2029 completion.
• New Business Unit: Active pursuit of "North-South" directed regional pipelines, laterals to demand centers, and integrated power opportunities.
• Capacity & Operations: Aim to own more of the value chain as third-party agreements expire; positioning to leverage infrastructure to expand Antero Resources' margins.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Demand Drivers: Shift in industry dynamics from "producer push" expansions to "demand pull" driven by LNG facilities, utilities, and electrification.
• Competitive Strategy: Antero Midstream (AM) intends to capitalize on its scale, balance sheet capacity, and expertise to secure projects previously farmed out to third parties.
• Infrastructure Demand: Growing need for natural gas infrastructure in Appalachia; AM positioned as the "industrial builder" in West Virginia to connect growing demand with investment-grade producers.
• Market Interest: Significant interest from downstream counterparties for the Eastside Express, underscoring demand for access to Antero Resources' natural gas.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Industry Dynamics: Structural shift in Appalachia driven by global LNG demand and domestic electrification.
• Supply Constraints: Acknowledgment of physical constraints and curtailments (approx. 10 BCF in Q3 2026) impacting throughput, but growth paths expected to outpace these constraints.
• Operational Reliability: Legacy and HG water systems achieved 100% uptime in Q3 2026, supporting operational confidence.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Eastside Express: Continued construction; FID on-track for late 2028/2029 with 7 interconnects.
• North-South Pipeline: In scoping phase; Full Investment Decision (FID) anticipated in 2027 to serve the Clarington market.
• HG Acquisition Integration: Targeting completion of water system integration by end of 2026.
• Balance Sheet Deployment: Utilizing excess capacity to pursue large infrastructure opportunities while maintaining debt discipline.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Curtailments: Physical constraints and curtailments may impact throughput (approx. 10 BCF in Q3), though net growth is still expected.
• Execution Risk: Successful realization of synergies and growth paths dependent on the timely integration of HG systems and completion of the Eastside Express.
• Market Volatility: Dependence on demand from LNG and utility sectors; shifts in these sectors could impact pipeline utilization.
• Regulatory/Environmental: Implicit risk in expanding infrastructure and electrification projects, though not explicitly detailed.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: Highly confident; describes Q4 EBITDA as an "all-time high" and the shift in demand dynamics as a strategic opportunity.
• Strategic Clarity: Emphasizes a move to "own more of the value chain" and act as a primary builder rather than relying on third parties.
• Balance Sheet Health: Positive sentiment regarding the reduction of leverage (down one full turn from peak) and the ability to fund growth while remaining below 3.0x leverage.
• Guidance Changes: No explicit changes to prior guidance numbers, but reaffirmed expectations for double-digit EBITDA growth in 2027 and high single-digit growth in Q4.

Miscellaneous:

• Litigation Proceeds: Q3 Free Cash Flow included $377 million in Clearwater litigation proceeds, utilized for debt reduction and share buybacks.
• Share Count: Reduced by over 6 million shares since year-end 2022; plans to accelerate repurchases upon achieving leverage targets.
• Transcript Note: The transcript explicitly states a capex figure of "$200 to $300 billion" for the Eastside Express project, which contradicts standard midstream project scales and company financials; this is recorded as stated in the source text.