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At $100 Oil, the Deal Flow Moved to Pipelines and Producing Wells

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  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent crude to average $87 per barrel in 2026, with Middle East production not returning to pre-conflict levels until early 2027.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent & WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 & $80 respectively, noting a potential for Brent to reach $120 in 2027 if Gulf output remains 4 million barrels below prewar levels.
  • Brent crude settled at $101.21 on September 9, 2026, & West Texas Intermediate settled at $96.05 following escalated fighting between the U.S. & Iran in the Persian Gulf.
  • U.S. gasoline reached a record $4.15 per gallon on Labor Day, with diesel expected to hit $6 per gallon within days due to Strait of Hormuz disruption risks.
  • Capital flows are shifting from new drilling to existing infrastructure & mature assets, as evidenced by four major transactions announced within the last ten days totaling roughly $20 billion.
  • Enbridge Inc. agreed to acquire Tallgrass Energy's crude oil business for $2.55 billion, adding pipeline capacity & terminal storage to its North American franchise.
  • The Williams Companies completed its $5.5 billion acquisition of Momentum Midstream, securing a gas gathering platform in the Haynesville shale to support LNG export capacity.
  • Diversified Energy Company plc announced a $1.8 billion acquisition of Birch Permian Holdings to increase production by 35% & EBITDA by 55%, focusing on mature wells drilled before 2023.
  • Tamarack Valley Energy & Headwater Exploration agreed to a $10 billion all-stock merger to create a pure-play Clearwater producer, with exploration assets separated into a new entity.
  • All four transactions prioritize moving barrels already in the ground over finding new reserves, reflecting a market strategy based on delivery risk rather than resource scarcity.
  • Each transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals, with closings expected in late 2026 or later, & deals are priced against volatile crude curves that could reverse.