CONNOR TESKEY ON BAM’S Q3 FUNDRAISING AND INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH WITH BLOOMBERG TV - BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD
Explicit Guidance:
- No explicit numerical financial guidance (revenue, earnings, capex, etc.) provided by management for future periods.
- Confirms "first quarter of meaningful realized carry" since the 2022 spin-out, with no specific carry amounts forecasted.
Business-Segment Outlook:
- Infrastructure: Identified as the "largest sector of growth," with $50 billion raised in the last 12 months (an all-time high for Brookfield and the alternative sector).
- AI & Digital Infrastructure: Described as a "tremendous growth opportunity" driving current momentum; demand remains "exceptionally high."
- Broader Infrastructure: Outlook is "very broad-based and globally diversified," covering energy, traditional infrastructure, midstream, utilities, and transportation.
- New Entrants: Anticipates some "new entrants" lacking experience will make mistakes, but this is expected to "dominate headlines" without disrupting the "incredibly robust directional trend" for experienced operators like Brookfield.
- Project Execution: Expectations are for continued growth driven by the ability to "pull projects out of the ground"; the industry bottleneck is identified as expertise/capability to execute, not capital or demand.
Market and Competitive Outlook:
- Supply vs. Demand: The "supply-demand imbalance" is expected to "continue" even if demand growth slows, plateaus, or declines, due to historically modest supply levels.
- Valuation Correction: Acknowledges public securities valuations were pricing "marginal component of demand" and have been volatile; expects a "reset" as markets move away from froth and "pockets of froth," but views this as healthy.
- Competitive Advantage: Anticipates a "separation in the market" based on the ability to secure "social license to operate" and execute de-risked development; long-term supply-demand fundamentals remain unchanged.
Macro / Industry Outlook:
- Political/Regulatory: Believes the need for energy and infrastructure is "not political"; views volatility from election results as a "change in sentiment" that does not alter the fundamental need for infrastructure.
- Demand Trajectory: Anticipates demand "continuing from here" across all geographies and populations; does not see a slowdown driven by supply constraints.
- Capital Markets: States there is "not shortage of capital" in the market; the limiting factor is project execution capability.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Capital Deployment: Reaffirms a "very de-risked approach" where capital is not deployed "until we have those permits, we have the equipment, we have this supply chain lined up."
- Geographic Focus: Plans to focus capital deployment in jurisdictions where there is "community support and the investment and the growth is welcomed" to ensure a social license to operate.
- Partnerships: Continues reliance on suppliers (e.g., Bloom Energy) and secures "long-term revenue constructs" with high-quality off-takers for data center power.
- M&A/Expansion: Positioned as a "key player funding the AI build-out and wider infrastructure build-out"; raised $25 billion in Q3 specifically for this purpose.
Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:
- Regulatory/Permitting Delays: Cites delays (e.g., oil pipeline approvals for data centers) as factors that slow growth "on the margin" but notes the business model is resilient due to the supply-demand imbalance.
- New Entrant Failures: Risks associated with inexperienced "neoclouds" and "chip financing" participants making mistakes, though management views this as non-disruptive to the long-term trend.
- Market Volatility: Acknowledges potential volatility in public market valuations as markets adjust expectations, though this is not viewed as a fundamental risk to the private infrastructure business model.
Management Tone on the Future:
- Confidence Level: High confidence; describes the environment as the "greatest infrastructure-built environment in history" and views the current growth pace as "incredible."
- Resilience: Expresses strong conviction that the business model is "very resilient, very robust" despite external volatility or political shifts.
- Contrast with Peers: Contrasts Brookfield's performance with peers (e.g., Blackstone) noting that Brookfield is not seeing the same "rougher quarter" impacts from realized carry or energy price volatility.
- No Change in Outlook: Explicitly states the "business model and our focus on investment in the space remains unchanged" despite short-term market fluctuations.
Miscellaneous:
- Fundraising Performance: $160 billion raised in the last 12 months; $25 billion raised specifically in the third quarter.
- Project Specifics: Mentions "Project Jupiter" (Bloom Energy backup) as an example of navigating permitting delays through a de-risked, contract-backed approach.
- Company
- BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD
- Keywords
- BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD