Federal Reserve Speeches·Jul 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET

Cook, Economic Outlook

Persistently elevated inflation remains the primary concern, with the 12-month price index rising 3.7 percent in June, which is 1.7 percentage points above the 2 percent target.
The Federal Reserve has not achieved its 2 percent inflation target for more than five years despite recent softer CPI & PPI reports.
The balance of risks has shifted from a focus on employment to price stability, as labor market indicators like the 4.2 percent unemployment rate suggest stability while inflation risks have intensified.
GDP growth is projected at 2.2 percent for 2026, exceeding previous forecasts & driven by booming labor productivity & data center buildouts.
Core goods prices have surged at a 5 percent annual pace, contrasting with the pre-pandemic downward trend & indicating that inflation is not solely an energy story.
Two unanticipated price shocks are impacting the economy: the Middle East conflict affecting energy & food prices, & increased capital expenditures for AI infrastructure.
Companies have announced over $1.5 trillion in data center plans, suggesting continued investment demand that may sustain inflationary pressures.
Although inflation expectations remain anchored & wage growth is decelerating, the speaker warns that supply shocks could lead to persistently higher inflation.
The speaker voted to keep interest rates steady in the most recent meeting to observe how inflation evolves from recent shocks.
The speaker remains unwavering in the commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target & is prepared to act if disinflation signs do not appear soon.