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CORRECTING and REPLACING Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY

ADBE
  • Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales will reach a record $275.1 billion from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026, representing a 6.7% year-over-year increase.
  • Cyber Monday is projected to remain the single largest shopping day with over $15.1 billion in spend, while Black Friday is expected to show stronger growth due to deeper discounts on categories like TVs & apparel.
  • Pre-season shopping in October is accelerating, with Adobe expecting $95.8 billion in online sales, driven by the Prime Day event which generated nearly $10 billion.
  • Electronics ($63.3 billion) & apparel ($51.3 billion) remain the top categories, though furniture, grocery, toys & cosmetics are showing stronger growth rates.
  • Mobile devices are projected to account for a record 63% of online spend on Thanksgiving, outpacing the full season mobile share of 57.4%.
  • Consumers are leveraging AI tools & social influencers to find deals, with AI-driven traffic to retail sites expected to rise 130% year-over-year.
  • Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to drive $21.3 billion in holiday spend, with usage spiking to $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday.
  • Shoppers are using competitive discounts (up to 30% off) to stock up on essentials, with online sales of personal hygiene products expected to jump 150% during Cyber Week.
  • Top hot sellers are expected to include Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5/Pro, iPhone 18 Pro, Beyblade X, & KPop Demon Hunters toys.
  • Social media & affiliate partners are driving significant revenue growth, with social media share of revenue expected to rise 17% year-over-year.
  • A correction was issued regarding the text stating Prime Day became an annual tradition in 2022, not 2021 as previously noted in the draft.