Earnings Call - SCORE MEDIA & GAMING INC

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1. Last week they punked the Patriots, turning last year's MVP runner-up into a deli-themed meme. This week they go on the road to Cincinnati and allow just 23 rushing yards in a 22-17 win. Jacksonville is unequivocally the class of the AFC South and a real Super Bowl contender. But I think most people forget that the players fueling their rise are also the ones that were responsible for the league's fourth worst record just two seasons ago. Before we get into why Jacksonville might be the team to beat in the AFC, if you enjoy NFL content like this, don't forget to like this video and subscribe to The Score so I can make more videos just like this. The Jaguars entered the 2024 season under Doug Peterson, coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2005. But after losing five of their final six games to close out 2023 and falling short of the postseason, the expectation was to do more than just win more games than they lost. After all, Trevor Lawrence signed a monster five-year, $275 million contract extension, and Jacksonville just spent their first-round pick on Lawrence's future wide receiver one in Brian Thomas. As we all know by now, 2024 was anything but successful. The offense was a mess. Lawrence threw just 11 touchdowns a career low and narrowly completed over 60% of his passes, his lowest rate since his rookie year under Urban Meyer. Brian Thomas was a bright spot, 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. But a sixth-round sophomore named Parker Washington finished third in receiving with just 390 yards. While Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram, the key pieces to the year prior, had the least productive seasons of their career. But it was the defense that was historically bad. Jacksonville had just nine takeaways the entire season. At the time, the only team in NFL history to have less was the 2018 San Francisco 49ers with 7. While perplexingly playing the league's highest rate of man coverage under Ryan Nielsen, they couldn't cover anyone, giving up a league-worst 257 passing yards per game. In a Week 11 loss to Detroit by a score of 52-6, the Jaguars' defense gave up 645 yards of total offense. Allowing 25.6 points per game led to a 4-13 season and the Jaguars clearing house. Peterson was fired at season's end, and suddenly Jacksonville was looking for its fourth head coach in six seasons. Having made multiple first overall selections the last few years, the organization needed someone that could get more out of the talent they already had. Everything changed instantly when the franchise hired Liam Cohen, a former Rams assistant who was calling plays for the Buccaneers, leading a top-five scoring offense in his lone season in Tampa. The hire made sense, as getting their $275 million quarterback's career back on track was an absolute must. But hiring an offensive coach doesn't explain how one of the worst defenses in football became one of The Best. For that, you need to know about another hire, Anthony Campanelli, the former Packers linebackers coach who co-entrusted with his first opportunity to run an NFL defense. And he inherited more talent than the previous season's results would suggest. Josh Hines-Allen, Trayvon Walker, Ventrell Miller, Antonio Johnson, these guys were already Jaguars. They'd already been part of the defense that couldn't stop anybody. Under Campanelli, that same core helped Jacksonville go from 25th against the run to first, from 27th in points allowed to 8th, and from a league-worst 8 takeaways to a league best 31. That's an entire defense changing its identity in one season. Cohen's first Jaguars team went 13-4, won the AFC South, and finished the regular season with eight straight wins. Now four games into year two, they're allowing just over 13 points a game. So what did Campanelli change to get this much more out of players Jacksonville already had? When Cohen was asked why he chose Campanelle, he said he brings an aggressive defensive mindset and a system that is adaptable to our players and allows them to play fast and physical. The schematic approach and numbers bear exactly that out. I don't want to lay the entirety of the blame on former DC Ryan Nielsen, but his defense was incredibly predictable and lacked urgency. Asking your secondary to play the league's highest rate of bad coverage when you're missing a true number one corner talent to match up with the league'S best receivers is certainly a choice. They also asked that secondary to hold up in coverage for far too long. The Jaguars had the NFL's second-lowest pressure rate at just 27.8% in 2024. Opposing quarterbacks had just far too much time to pick their defense apart, due in part to the fact they rarely, if ever, blitzed. Jacksonville had the league's lowest blitz rate in 2024, at just 13%. Under Campanelli, they've completely flipped the script. The Jaguars' defense is diverse in their coverage looks. They don't put their cornerbacks on an island. In fact, they played the league's fifth-highest rate of zone coverage last season at 67% of plays. And they're far more aggressive, blitzing at double the rate. Jacksonville has gone from being a predictable, easy game plan for opposing offenses to one that shows opponents a litany of different looks it must be well-prepared for. That's how a defense with largely the same personnel, is able to turn into the fifth-best third-down defense and only allow a touchdown on 29% of opponent red zone trips. Ventrell Miller was one of the league's lowest-graded tacklers at linebacker in 2024, when he was forced into action as a fourth-round rookie. This season, his 90.2 defense grade is PFF's highest-rated linebackers this season. Monteric Brown, Jerrion Jones, and Antonio Johnson were responsible for over 1,000 opponent receiving yards in 2024. They're 1, 2, and 6 in snap counts for the team's high-performing secondary this season. The defense gives Jacksonville something Trevor Lawrence hasn't consistently had, room for error. He doesn't have to win a shootout every Sunday, and when the offense stalls, the game doesn't automatically get away from them. But Cohen deserves credit for what happens when the Jaguars have the ball too. And the most surprising part is who is making the offense work. Remember Brian Thomas, the rookie who put up 1,282 yards and led his draft class with 10 receiving touchdowns during that disastrous final season under Peterson? Last year, he found the end zone just twice. Through four games this year, he has nine catches for 105 yards. Then there's Travis Hunter. Any other NFL team would be in ruin giving up a future first, a second, and fourth-round pick to move up three spots and select a player who, at the time, Jacksonville envisioned getting two players for one pick. Instead, Hunter's impact on offense has been just nine total routes run this season, zero in their win over Cincinnati on Sunday. I don't want to disparage Hunter. He's undoubtedly a talented player and looks like a future CB1 on the defensive side. He's proven it, too. In man coverage this year, he's allowed zero catches on five targets with an interception and a 91.1 PFF coverage grade. The Jaguars have been desperate to find a go-to shadow corner since probably Jalen Ramsey, and Hunter could be it. But to be 16-5 under Cohen while your last two first-round picks have fallen this short of expectation is a testament to this coaching staff. Parker Washington leads the team in receiving yards. A sixth-round pick by the former regime looks like a game-changer for this offense. Then there's Jacoby Myers. It's rare a receiver addition at the NFL's trade deadline looks as smart as this one, especially when they're acquired for just a fourth and sixth- round pick. But he's created significant depth at the receiver position for Jacksonville, something that has plagued the other AFC contenders like Buffalo, Kansas City, or New England. And even the offense is a case of players that contributed to their dismal 2024 season being key cogs of the turnaround. Three of the five offensive line starters, Anton Harrison, Ezra Cleveland, and Cole Van Lannen, are now finding success in Cohen's system. The Jaguars aren't unstoppable. Don't get me wrong, Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards against them on Sunday. But Jacksonville is proving it can still win when that happens. In wins over Cleveland and New England, Lawrence combined to throw seven touchdowns. He's posting career highs in completion percentage, 69.2%, yards per attempt, 8.1%, and EPA per play. Against Cincinnati, though, he completed 18 of 23 passes without an interception while the defense delivered the takeaways that decided the game. Different opponents, different ways to win. It's all led to a 11-1 run in their last 12 regular season games. They're showing signs of being a complete team under Cohen, from play-calling to personnel to on-field execution. And that's what should scare the rest of the AFC. Jacksonville can win without Brian Thomas taking over, without Travis Hunter playing both ways, without Trevor Lawrence having to be spectacular every Sunday. Cohen has built an offense with answers. Campanelli has built a defense that gives it chances. And together they've shown how much talent was being wasted on a team everyone had written off. The next step is proving this translates to January, but the Jaguars have already given us plenty of reasons to take them seriously. Because if this is what Jacksonville looks like while some of its most talented players still have another gear to reach, the rest of the AFC better hope they don't find it. Thanks for watching. Where do you think the Jaguar stand amongst the league's elite right now? Are they a Super Bowl contender? Let me know in the comments below. And if you enjoyed this breakdown, don't forget to like this video and subscribe to The Score.