Equinor Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call - EQUINOR ASA

thank you all for joining in on the presentation of our third quarter results. I am here together with our CFO, Torgim Reitan, who will take us through the results before we start the Q&A. And we will complete the entire session within one hour, as we used to do. So with that, I hand it to you, Turgim. Thank you very much, Bård, and good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before I get to our results, you now see the photo of our Mongstad refinery. Mongstad delivered record results this quarter driven by excellent operational performance capturing very strong refining margins. So I will share more about MMP's contribution as we now turn to the quarterly results. At our Capital Markets Day, we presented our plans to deliver more energy, a growing cash flow, and superior returns. During the third quarter, we progressed in line with our strategy. In the US, we signed an agreement to acquire a stake in the Lackawanna Energy Center. This acquisition strengthens our position in an attractive US power market and complements our strong gas position in the area. Also, the Beirut North project in Canada is moving forward. In October, we brought Shell into the project, and we are very happy to have them as our partner as we move towards a final investment decision early next year. We also added more exploration opportunities. In Angola, we have recently been involved in two discoveries, We have also been awarded attractive new acreage, both in Angola and Brazil. In addition, we entered Namibia with plans to start drilling already this quarter. On the Norwegian continental shelf, we enter into a strategic exploration collaboration with RKBP and Vorenergy. And our ambition is to mature and test up to 25 prospects with standalone potential over the next years. This quarter, we delivered a production growth of 2%, and year-to-date, we have delivered a production growthof almost 5%. So based on strong operations, we are now increasing or guiding for the year from 3% to around 4% growth. With high production, higher prices, and exceptional refining contribution, we delivered strong financial results. Adjusted operating income was $12.4 billion before tax. Cash flow from operations after tax was $8.1 billion in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $21.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20. This includes a negative impact from net financial items, mainly driven by foreign exchange movements. The board has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 cents per share, and a fourth tranche of the share buyback program of up to 1.125 billion dollars. So this brings total share buybacks for 26 to 3 billion dollars, a number which we increased at our capital markets day. Before we go deeper into our financial results, let us start with safety, which is our highest priority. We have a long-term trend with strong improvements of our safety results, but we see an increase in the number of incidents since last year. We are still seeing too many personal injuries and this remains an important focus for us. We will continue to work systematically so that everyone working for Equinor returns home safely every day. Equity production increased by two percent compared with the same quarter last year. On the Norwegian continental shelf, production was stable. Natural decline was offset by new fields delivering around 70 000 barrels per day. The planned turnaround program is completed and well executed. The combined international production increased by 5%. This is driven by Aduro and Bacalao, and we are happy to say Bacalau is now producing at Plateau. This more than offset the divestments of Peregrino and Argentina, as well as lower U.S. offshore production due to planned turnaround activity. Renewable power production increased by 26%, driven by Dogger Bank. Empire Wind is now around 80% complete. Most of the remaining project scope relates to offshore turbine installation, which is expected to start next year. This is a bit later than planned, with first power during first half of 2027. However, there is no change to total CAPEX and the recognition of the ITC will remain as previously communicated with the majority in 2027 Now to our financial results Adjusted operating income for the group was $12.4 billion before tax, almost twice the level from the same quarter last year. While commodity prices are cyclical, it is important to focus on what we can control. Stable operations, laser-sharp execution, and cost discipline. EMP Norway, with stable production, and EMP International, with growing production, each benefited from higher realized prices. International results were also affected by the timing of liftings. In EMP US, higher realized liquid prices were offset by turnaround activity at Caesar Tonga, a $105 million impact related to the Titan asset retirement publication. MMP delivered well above guidance, driven by strong refining performance, strong results from LNG, also contributed positively, while the result was negatively impacted by shipping derivatives. Power delivered a result close to zero, Net impairments of $485 million impacted our net operating income, and this includes impairments at Stadfjord, partly offset by a reversal at Martin-Linge. Then a few words about costs. We have momentum behind reducing underlying costs by 10% this year. However, we are somewhat behind due to factors we don't control, such as foreign exchange effects and higher energy consumption costs. Cost discipline remains important also in periods of higher commodity prices. So, now to cash flow. This quarter, cash flow from operations was $14.7 billion. During the quarter, we paid two tax installments in Norway, totaling $6.2 billion. In the fourth quarter, we expect to pay three tax installents, totaled $93 billion Norwegian kroner. In August, we increased our tax payments for the second half of 2026 due to the sustained high price environment. So this will even out tax payments between second half 26 and first half 27. However, prices have continued to increase, and we currently expect tax payments in the first half of 27 to be higher than second half in 2026. Organic capital expenditure was $3.3 billion in the quarter. We received a cash dividend from Adura of $225 million. The strong financial results have further strengthened our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $24 billion. Our net debt ratio decreased to 3.8%. At current forward prices, we expect our net debt ratio to be around zero at year-end. But, and this is important, this does not include the effect of the six-month tax lag in Norway. If we adjust for this and assume that tax payments in 2026 fully reflect the 2026 earnings, The year and net debt ratio will be somewhat above 10%. So finally, to our outlook. For 2026, we continue to expect organic CapEx of around $13 billion. I mentioned that currency effects put some upward pressure on costs. This is also the case for CapEx. On the other side, we see some schedule effects, including for Empire Wind, as I mentioned, that pushes some CAPEX into next year. As I have covered, we are increasing our production guiding to around 4% for the year. Then, turning to capital distribution. For 2026, we are delivering in line with what we have said. At Capital Markets Day, we also put forward a new framework for capital distributions that will be implemented next year. And I would like to take this opportunity to remind you on how this will work in practice. So cash dividend remains our first priority. We expect to increase the quarterly cash dividend by more than five percent on an annual basis. We did that last year, we did it this year, and this is what you should expect going forward as well. We also introduced a framework for share buybacks of two to four billion dollars per year, when oil prices are between 60 and 80 dollars and European gas prices are between 7 and 11 dollars per mbtu. In February we will announce the first of four tranches for 2027 and not set an annual number as we did in the past. With realized prices within the range in the previous quarter, each tranche will be from 500 million to 1 billion dollars, summing up to a total of 2 to 4 billion per year. Within the price range, you should expect the buyback level to be fairly linear. So, if prices are in the middle of the range, you should also expect buybacks in the mid-range. However, as it looks now, prices could be outside of the ranges, And if prices are above, and particularly if they stay above for an extended period of time, we have the opportunity to do more. But in this scenario, you should not expect a linear relationship. And we want to avoid being too cyclical in our buybacks. So we will use high price environments to strengthen the balance sheet and ensure that we can continue investing in profitable projects while honoring our dividend commitments, also in a low price environment. And of course, we will come back to you on this topic in February. So for now, I hand the word back to U-Board and I look very much forward to your questions. Thank you, Torgrim. We are then ready for the Q&A, and we have a good list already. But let me remind you that if you want to sign up for a question, you can press star 1-1. The first question will be from Chris Coupland from Bank of America. Chris, please go ahead with your question. Yeah, thank you very much for providing the additional clarity, Torgrem, on how you're going to treat the share buybacks going forward. I have two quick questions that I want to tackle up front. Firstly, maybe you can go into a bit more detail around the source of the increased production guidance for the year and go into more detail on how the declining Norwegian fields are doing relative to expected startups and ramp-ups internationally. And then as a second question, I realize your slide pack doesn't repeat what you've presented before, but I remember a CFFO guidance for the year at close to $30 billion at your higher commodity price deck. And it looks to me like both Brent and TTF, if not Henry Hub, are today significantly above that high commodity price deck that you used at the time to get to 30 billion. So maybe you want to give us a little bit of a rule of thumb or an update on where you stand in terms of your full year expectations, also reflecting the fact that you've changed your tax cadence, your tax payment cadence. Thank you. Thanks, Chris. Very good question. Questions, I must say. So let me start with production. So the production for the year 2026 has overall been stronger than what we have expected. So this comes from, you know, strong operations and very high regularity, you know, across the portfolio. And also that, you Know, the decline on Johan's is to the very lower end on what we be guided at. We also have no Bacalao at Plateau contributing well towards the end of the year. So, we are comfortable in sort of updating our production guidance for the full year. So, this is on the back of good execution and good operations. Then I just want to use the opportunity to also talk about 2027, because 2026 is a rather extraordinary year as such, because we have a lot of production being ramping up on the back of the Norwegian tax package and also international startup. So I just want to use the opportunity to talk about 2027 because that is not going to be fully in line with the production in 26. It is going to Be higher than 25 and sort of very much sort of building up to the, towards 2030, and the growth towards 2030. You know, the particular things to mention about 2027 is that Bakalao is now on plateau and will contribute significantly. Rosebank and Jack Daw in the Adura portfolio will be producing, and also Yggdrasil in Norway. So those are sort of the new elements in 2027. So, 2027 is going to be also a very good year operationally and production-wise, but of course, 2026 is an extraordinary year. Your second question, Chris, was related to cash flow from operations. So, at the Capital Markets Day, we gave a guidance for 2026 at $25 billion, and that was based on a price tag as far as I remember of $80 Brent and 15 Gas. prices are above that we are now looking at around 29 billion dollars in cash of operations based on current forward uh for prices as such just want to remind you is there is a significant tax leg coming out of these high prices so we will pay quite a bit of the taxes associated with this high revenue in the first half of of 27. thank you chris we are not ready for the next question and that will be henry patrico from ubs henry uh your mic is open please go ahead with your question yes hello everyone thanks for the update about two questions the first one actually a follow-up on the uh production or two question i mean it seems like for 2026 part of the of performance is coming from uh u.n's backdrop with the decline very much at the lower end of your expectation so So with that, an extraordinary performance for 26, to what extent should we expect perhaps a faster decline in 27 at UN, etc.? And then secondly, thank you for the comments on the shelter returns. I wanted to follow up on that and understand. So you mentioned that it shouldn't be linear as we go above 80. up above so I think that has a slower increase in the buyback compared to the range between 60 and 80 but is there a point at which you have such a high net cash position that would see a higher shell returns or would you like to continue to deliver and build up that cash position okay very good henry so thank you very much um so on production outlook and decline in general on the ncs is you know broadly as expected we have a lot of activity into sort of um you know fighting decline and that is working very well johannes verdrup has consistently delivered better than expected since we started both on plateau production and our ability to manage the clients. Our people have done a fantastic job in managing water management and drilling performance and reaching the very high recovery rates in the field. So, year-to-date, we see an 11% decline in Johansson Group. As you might remember, we said between 10% and 20% in the beginning of the year. So, towards the end of the years, we will still be in the lower end of this range. Next year, you should expect a higher decline than that. That is not special in any way. This is the way the reservoir behaves. but it will be higher next year than this year. Then on the share buyback and what to do when we are outside the framework. So in a capital allocation framework, there are priorities to this. One is the cash dividend, and we talked about this. The second one is reinvestment into our portfolio. The third one is having a very strong balance sheet. And the flexible part is the share buyback. So there are two things I would like to say in this behalf. When it comes to the net cash position of $24 billion, yes, it is a high number. We have been running with a very high cash position for many, many years, actually. And the way we manage this is in an active manner. So the cost of carry is actually very limited to this. So the costs of carrying this cash is very, very low. So we'll continue to run with a significant cash position. Second point I would like to make and repeat is that let's not sort of, you know, current net debt ratio is 3.8%, of course, very law. we just need to adjust for the tax leg that sort of disturbed this picture quite a bit in a high price environment. So we expect that to be, you know, somewhat about 10% by year end. So that is the number I would like you to think about when you think about the strength of our balance sheet. Last point I would love to make is that we intend to run with a very solid balance sheet, But a great company needs to be able to maneuver cycles in a good way, building balance sheets in a high price environment to ensure that we can sail very fast and effectively through a lower price environment and create shareholder value also at that point in time. So that's the intention that we do have. Thank you. We are moving on to the next question. Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Please, Alonro, the microphone is open. Yes, thank you for taking my questions. Well, the first question is about your outlook for the European natural gas market into this winter season, if you can elaborate a bit on the moving parts here. And second, in terms of also related to the strong balance sheet and how you see the M&A opportunity, particularly looking at the big gap between European gas prices and the U.S. natural gas prices, if there are additional opportunities there for your M&A strategy. Thank you. Thank you very much, Alejandro. So first on the European gas market. So the prices in Europe are high, you know, above $30 per mBtu and well above $90 per megawatt hour. so I think that illustrates a very tight situation I'll put a few comments around this one is that the storage situation is currently at 73% in Europe that is low that is the lowest since 2011 and what that leads to is a vulnerable situation with very little flexibility for events and all of that. And you see that is sort of reflected in the price. The second thing I would like to mention is El Nino, the weather phenomenon that many believe will lead to warmer winter. That will be helpful for a tight energy market in Europe. But on the other hand, this is a well-known element that is already priced into the market. so it is there. The third thing I would like to bring forward is Asian demand. So we see actually a fairly solid demand for LNG even at the current prices, so that's also something to note. And of course the last one is everything around Hormuz and the LNG. Very, very few cargoes are passing the strait. There are significant different risks related to a LNG ship than a crude tanker. So we expect the flow of LNG to be very very limited until there is a solution to the conflict and safe to travel. So this leads to a situation where it will be a vulnerable situation. It is a tight market. A cold spell will drive possibly significant volatility into this but we do believe that that sort of Europe will manage and we will do our utmost to deliver as much gas as we can. Last point I would like to make on this topic is that you know that we keep our exposure very much to the front so 70 percent of our gas exposure is on a day ahead basis and 30 percent on a month ahead basis. The reason for that is that We want the flexibility that that gives, and we want exposure to the volatility as well. So in a volatile environment here, you can rest assured that the revenue finds its way to the P&L. Your second question is on M&A opportunities. You know, M&S is a very natural part of the way we run our business. It is an integral part of hydrating the portfolio and delivering on the strategy. You have seen over the years a very active environment, but pretty balanced when it comes to acquisition and divestments. Going forward, you should also expect us to be active in this field. A few data points. Everything we do will be very much linked into the strategy that we put forward in June there will be a very very close alignment with that and you might take some guidance from what we have done in the past to actually predict the future and if you look at what we've done over the last period we have done several transactions of the Norwegian continent itself and we will still continue with doing that we made two acquisitions into Marcellus with EQT over the last few years on good terms. And thirdly, we made an acquisition in the U.S., a gas-fired power plant in Lackawanna. It sort of ties the gas position, the gas market, and the power market closely together. We do believe that those markets are going to be more integrated going forward, and we do think that in that space we have a role to play. So that's sort of the thinking I would like you to take on when it comes to M&A. Thank you, thank you Alejandro for those questions. Next one on my list is Michele de la Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Michele please go ahead. Thank you very much and congratulations on a very strong and busy quarter. Two questions I wanted to ask. The first one is what is your current premium in terms of crude realizations in nowhere compared to the uh datibrand and and to the one month forward brand it looks like you are in a period of very very strong realizations and secondly could you update us on empirewind when you think when you expect the startup and if you still expect to receive the full two billion dollars of tax assets um through 2027. thank you very much thanks thanks michaela great it. So on the NCS, we do see that there's a big demand for NCS oils in Europe. So we are selling all our oil into the European market from the Norwegian continent itself. We are mostly selling it on sort of dated contracts and less so on sort the future markets. And in general, we receive premium for many qualities. A couple of examples is Johan Sverdrup, on average, a $2 premium to Brent. And Johan Casberg, up in the Barrens, which has a very nice quality, $8 premium. And then there will be single cargoes with higher premiums of course. So in general, good prices, short sailing distances, which is important because shipping is a challenge in many places in times like this. On Empire Wind, so despite the stop work orders and all of that, we have been able to progress this and develop this and it hasn't really slowed us much down. We are now 80% complete on Empire Wind and we intend to start with installation of sort of the turbine, the top side of the wind farm if you like, just over Christmas. We expect first power during the second half of this year. Yeah, I mean first half. I apologize for that. First half, but it's clearly very much so. Point being that when we get first power, it's sort of we are entitled to the investment tax credit that you ask for and sort of the main season for and we're going to capitalize some of it you know based on our own operations but mostly selling them and capitalizing on them the season for that is typically in the autumn where companies are aware of their tax position So that, you know, the timing is actually very good for capitalizing this. There are some $2.5 billion in investment tax credits, the facing of this. We expect $2 billion in 2027 and the remaining in 2028. So this is exactly what we have guided at earlier as well. So this sort of on schedule for cash flow-wise and investment-wise. very clear, thank you thank you Mikael next one on my list is Theodor Sven Nilsen from Sparbanken Markets Theodor, please go ahead thank you for taking my questions and congrats on a very strong quarter two questions first on Torim, you mentioned the lack of a model I'm just curious about how is your appetite for increasing your downstream exports in general market area in Europe, should we expect to do anything more on the downstream side in Europe? Second question, that is a follow-up on a previous question on the gas market, how do you assess that potential for demand destruction in Europe at the current TTS gas prices? Thank you. Thanks, Theodore. I struggled a little bit with the first question. Was that related to Lackawanna? Theodore, if you could repeat, you broke up a little, so if you can repeat the first question, please. Sure, sorry about that. Yeah, the first question, that is related to your appetite for increasing downstream exposure. Yeah. Okay. All right. Thanks, Theodor. So, you know, on the first one, you know, downstream exposure is, I mean, we will never go into sort of end user activities and all of that. That has never been part of the strategy, and we have no intention to do that. However, we are sort of clearly interested in opportunities that can create value on a portfolio level in the company across, you know, power and natural gas. So, you know, you saw the acquisition in the US related to La Cabana. We have a few other gas-fired power plants in the portfolio and sort of we do believe that that um that that is an important part of the strategy strategy in going forward i mean we will clearly always be very cautious about how quickly we move forward on the in these areas but we do belive over time that these two markets you know are moving closer and closer together then on the second question which i do think was around the high gas prices in europe and potentially demand destruction clearly something that we we we monitor closely and what you mentioned is sort of the long-term negative effect of high prices both within oil and natural gas so you know we need to be prepared for that there is some of that on the other side what we do see is a significant increased appetite for long-term gas contracts related to Norway and customers that now clearly see natural gas as sort of a long- term fuel for them and on sort of a state level that natural gas is going to be a very important part of the energy security agenda for four states so we see actually an increasing appetite for long term gas in addition so that That is also an aspect we need to bring with us. Thank you. Thank you, Theodor. Next one is Martin Ratz from Morgan Stanley. Martin, please go ahead with your question. Yeah. Good morning. Two remaining. I wanted to ask about MMP because the overall results of 893 million is broadly as expected, even a little higher. But the components, I thought, were really quite confusing. So crude products and liquids were negative, but then there is this big lump of more than $500 million in other. Can you talk a bit about sort of what sits where, what this loss in crude products and liquids, what that is? Is that impacted by trading or shipping derivatives? and also on M&P if this guidance of $400 million a quarter, like we've been above that now for quite a few quarters, you know, what stock we should still sort of put in that guidance. And the second thing I wanted to ask, of course, we're all trying to figure out, you know. The balance sheet is teetering quite a rapid pace. We can see forward prices on the screen and project forward, figuring out, where of course the incremental, what the use of all the funding will be. And in that context, I came across some renewed commentary recently about Tanzania LNG. And I was wondering if that is indeed sort of on your radar and was wondering if you could give us an update on your plans there. Thanks, Martin. So let me take the M&P first. So the other part, that is actually among study refinery. Then on CPL, you're absolutely right the the cpl the crude business has actually done very well in the quarter and the reason why they are showing a negative results is related to shipping derivative and just let me explain that a little bit the way we run our shipping fleet is that we have long-term you know tc contracts on them which are actually significantly below current markets for shipping. Then we swap some of it to floating, and that is sort of the derivative effects that you sort of book for one quarter. So the underlying situation is that the crude has done very well, and we operate with lower shipping rates than many. And last point on MNP, I mean, in the current market situation, there are good opportunities for them to make money in general as such but but we have no yeah so right and then on sort of second question is on tanzania so tanzana is you know very significant gas discoveries you know many years ago that sort of we together with partners have have matured there are no new news on tansania it is an option we haven't brought that into our plans or guiding in any And we do see that as a long-term optionality for the future. Thank you. Thank you, Martin. Next one is Fergus Neve from Redburn. Fergus, please go ahead. Yeah, hi. Morning, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Two, please, if I might. Just first, could you talk us through the new acreage in Brazil, Angola, and Namibia that you mentioned at the start of the call and the forthcoming exploration plans in those new acres through 4Q and into 2027. I think you mentioned that you had started looking at an option in Namibia. And then secondly, with Shell joining the Bay de Noord project, you mentioned we're still on track for FID in early 2027 I'm just curious if you could comment on what milestones still remain to get to that FID stage now that you've brought the new partner on board. Thanks. Okay, very good. Thank you, Fergus. So in Brazil, we have over the years built sort of a larger and larger portfolio of exploration opportunities. So there are two new exploration licenses this year. It's called Ruby and Rodocruzita, if you are interested. We have 100% ownership the first one and 70% in the second one, and we operate both of them. Then in Namibia, we farmed into an exploration opportunity together with Chevron. The plan is to spud that well during fourth quarter, in the quarter we are in, and clearly we have to wait to comment more on that. On Shell, I mean, very happy to have Shell on board as a partner. So they are buying into the concept and all of that, and there is nothing that sort of stops us from moving forward as planned, which is a final investment decision early part of next year. So this is going to be a very significant investment, but also a very important contributor in the 2030s cash flow for us. Thank you, Fergus. We are moving on with Vidar Lyngvær in Danske Bank. Vidar, please, you're ready for your question. Thank you so much for the answer today, and thank you for taking my questions. Two from me, please. First, I'd like to ask about listing. What kind of break even or capex range per barrel do you need to see to at the concept selection to go ahead with FID next year and are the consortium looking to bring in other partners at this point how is the appetite in the market for that any comment around that would be appreciated I'll pause here for the next one thank you very much Vidar so on this thing we haven't sort of issued any sort of break-evens or complex range. We have worked that project significantly and sort of cost has come down and it has improved quite a bit. But we have still some work to do. We plan for a constant select pretty soon and a final investment decision maybe in a year's time or so like that. Partnerships is going well so there are no intention to do anything with that. Thank you, I appreciate that. Second question if I may. On the side of our collaboration with Acrobit Peace, it's been a long-awaited collaboration. What sort of volumes do you target from these reservoirs? I understand it's early days, but anything you could share that would be appreciated, and how will costs be shared? Yeah, that's too early to comment on. You know, the regulator, the Norwegian regulator, have put out a number there. I think it's 2.8 billion gallons, which is sort of a Johansson size type of thing. But the reservoir is, of course, very, very different than Johanssons. These are tight reservoirs that sort of tracking technology needs to quickly to be used. So our job is now to qualify technology and see if there is an opportunity to look into this. This is sort of long-term optionality. I just want to leave that with you. Thank you. Sorry, Vida, but I need to move on with my list. You can raise your hand again, and we will take the question if we have time towards the end. The next on the list is Jason Gabelman from TD Cohen. So, Jason, please go ahead. Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to Canada and Bay to Nord. With the change in the fiscal policy there and the additional tax deductions, you could take on the project. Does that kind of change the potential scoping of this project? Does it create additional expansion opportunities, and it doesn't change how you view your participation in Northeast Canada more broadly? Thanks, Jason. Yeah, you know, it's quite interesting to see the renewed attention to the northeast of Canada. so clearly we see that the federal and the provincial you know governments are very supportive to to develop this area and we also see see all the companies showing more and more interest into into this you know what we will do here we will not change the concept in any way we are on the way to a final investment decision and we will deliver that so that sort of we that development is only based on part of the discoveries that we have. We have a series of other discoveries in the licenses around that are nice tie-ins when Beidouinor ultimately gets off plateau, and there is more prospectivity around this. So this is maybe a little bit Johan Kastberg type of approach, where we take a major investment based on one reservoir, And then clearly there are further optionality around that. So really looking forward to opening up a new area in northeast of Canada. Great. And my follow-up is on Rosebank. We saw Jack Daw get the positive government approval to go ahead. Any read-through to Rosebank? Have you heard anything from the government since the Jack Daw decision? And if it doesn't get government approval, does that change the potential distributions you could get from the Adora Joint Venture? First of all, we clearly expect that there will be a positive decision on Rosebank. We just have to remind ourselves that this is a project that was discovered almost 20 years ago. we started investing in or you know in 2023 and the ship is now out there west of Shetland with people working on board and this is going to be 4% of UK UK's gas production and it's going to be a significant part of the tax revenue helping the government to fund their budget so clearly we expect that to happen the field is on schedule to start production next year, first off, next year. So that is clearly our expectations. Thank you, Jason. I move forward. I still have a good list of questions. Ahmed Ben Salem from Oddo. Please, Ahmed. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, if I may. First, how sustainable do you see the current production growth beyond 26 especially in 27 and 28 and second given your strong balance sheet how how are you thinking about the trade-off between organic investment potential mna and further buybacks thank you okay so thank you very much so um production in 27 um is going to be we expect it to be not fully in line with the production in 2026 2026 was an extraordinary year with a lot of ramp ups and and starts up but clearly 27 is sort of a part of the production growth all the way to 2030 so it will be higher and building up to the production in 2030 as such. So we announced a production growth at the capital markets day all the way to 2030. This is very much in line with that. Your second question on the balance sheet. When it comes to capital allocation you can go back to the framework that that we talked about at the Capital Markets Day. First priority is cash dividends, more than 5% growth per year. The second one is reinvestment into our business, around $12 billion. And we are a strong believer that we want to be consistent through cycle when we invest. And we think there's most value to have around that. The third one is to run with a very solid balance sheet. And the fourth is share buyback as the flexible tool. So that is an order of priority. So organic investment is very important. M&A is always an opportunity, and it is a very natural part of the way we run our business and develop our business. So you should expect there to be M&E activity also going forward, some divestments and some acquisitions. Thank you very much. Next one on my list is Matt Lofting from J.P. Morgan. Matt, please go ahead. Your mic is open. Thanks, Baird, and thanks, Torgrim. A lot of my questions have been covered. I'll perhaps just put one to you following up on capital allocation. You talked earlier, Tor Grim, about not wanting to be too cyclical around buybacks. Understandably, you referenced the M&A piece. When you look at organic investment opportunities, The company obviously raised modestly the budget earlier in the year for 2027. Do you see any further opportunities to utilize some of the additional cash flow that's being generated by further accelerating asset developments, but particularly perhaps in Norway, where you've got the opportunity to help secure European energy systems and capture cash flow in doing so? Thanks. Matt, thank you very much. So in Norway, let me focus on Norway. Clearly, we are stepping up our investments, I mean, through sort of the program that we call NCS 2035, where we now sort of reduce the time from discovery to production with 50%, and actually also the cost of the developments by 50%. So actually, underlying investments in Norway we have increased that a little bit compared to earlier. So there are more projects coming, more production coming, and all of that. Point being, this is a machine that sort of keeps running, and we cannot sort of adjust that program on sort of fluctuations in the price. We just need that to run consistently as such. And that is also good for sort of the whole supplier universe around this, because we We don't want to sort of create inflation in certain part of the cycles and then sort of significant too much capacity in other parts of the cycle. So we do believe steady, predictable delivery all the way to 2035 as such. And then of course, if there is a significant discovery, I mean, clearly we are going to make to look for bigger things as well i mean we we will continue that on top of all of this naturally but first we need to make the discoveries of course thank you matt we then move to alistair syme from city alistar please go ahead yeah thanks for the um i just wanted to come back to the kawana uh energy center acquisition and just you know i noticed that at the capital market state you gave a bit of a presentation about the north american energy business but can you just sort of talk us through how that opportunity came about you know why was it prioritized versus other things you could have done thank you yeah no um yeah thanks alistair um yeah um so So we have sort of for quite some time always looked at how can we create even more value out of our U.S. gas position. And clearly what we currently are doing, we take our gas in kind. We sort of market and trade it ourselves and transport it ourselves. That has sort of benefited clearly from that. and then we do see that sort of there is more value to be had in the intersection between the gas markets and the power markets and we know that are you know clearly there are other companies looking for you know companies like ours to see if there are closer collaboration that can be so i think that's sort of where the two companies met that we saw that we had sort of complementary assets and skills that together can actually create you know more value for for the both of us so this is in energy that sort of operates this plant you know a premium operator in the a very solid and and reputable operator in them in in in the u.s thank you we then move on to paul redman from bmp paribas paul please go ahead Hi there. Just two questions. The first one was just back to distribution program, and thanks for a little bit more context. You highlighted the fact that the buyback is unlikely to be linear and announced on a quarterly basis going forward if prices are above $80 a barrel and same on the TTF price. But how will you think about that increase? Does it come down to percentage of cash flow for operations? Is there any basis in which that upside to buyback will come through and then my second question i think you mentioned earlier that you expect cash flow from operations on forward curve to currently be to be 29 billion for the year just wanted to kind of remind myself of that comment when i run sensitivities i think i get a little bit higher um so i'm taking a high case plus sensitivities on top takes me to over 30 billion but maybe i'm wrong somewhere on my maths okay no thanks paul um so on the first one on the distribution so we are not using a percentage of cash flow corporations instead we have sort of put forward this sort of framework that sort of gives you sort of a pretty linear approach when prices are sort of in them in within these bands which are sort more normal situations and then sort of we are we're not able to give you sort you know more guiding than what I've head on on when prices are above but you know clearly it gives us an opportunity to increase the share buyback but you shouldn't expect sort of a linear approach to that and clearly we don't want to be too cyclical here instead we want to see to that that we build balance sheet in a high price environment enabling us to to to create value and being consistent in in low price environment, and they do intend to run with a very solid balance sheet through all of this. Then on the last one, there might be some differences of time when you have picked the forward prices and all of that. So there's lots of uncertainty here, and I'm not in a position to know exactly what this is, but maybe you want to have a chat with Investor Relations afterwards. Thank you. We are, of course, a follow-up on that, Paul. But now we move on to Nash Kiwi from Barclays. Please go ahead, Nash. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first one, just to clarify on 2027 distribution, Targum, given what you said on buybacks, should we assume that you literally rule out a special dividend in another world, all the incremental distribution will come from buybacks? Then my second question is on safety, page three of the presentation caught my eye. I wonder, could you help us understand the safety data experience this quarter, whether there were any common underlying issues, and how quickly you expect the mitigation measures to be implemented? Thank you. OK, thanks, Nash. On your first question on distribution, share buyback is going to be the flexible part of the of the capital distribution so that's what we want to to to use the second question i struggled a little bit you know understand or hearing you but i think you talked about safety and whether it was some sort of major things there no no no incidents with sort of a major accident potential as such so so clearly clearly we watch this space you know very very closely i just want to leave with you that there has been i mean the the the even if sort of there is a negative trend this year if you look back over the years and take serious incident frequency that has gone from six in 2001 when we ipo'd to 0.25 at the current point in time so i mean this is a tight ship that we are running but all the weak signals we can get hold of we use them to improve our business as much as we can thank you uh we will take one uh last question and that will be uh you you know from abg sundal collier so you can go ahead thanks for that i'll limit my question to one so it's this is the question over the last few months several investors have asked me what are ecuador's competitive advantages that make them a better owner of gas-fired power plants onshore or in around Pennsylvania than other players and to be honest I struggle to give investors a good answer to that. Could you tell me what should I tell investors? What are Exynos key competitive advantages of owning gas- fired plants on shore in the US. Thanks, Jon. So, a few points. It starts with sort of the gas position. That is going to be very long when it comes to gas in the northeast of the US, second point, we have a very large trading and marketing operation out of Stamford and knows the pgm market very well also from that point of view from the gas side we have a very strong balance sheet and we are sort of a long-term partner for for others in this space so clearly clearly you know if you're sort of really thinking broadly here this is an area where where clearly massive investments are going into data centers and AI. And those companies are typically looking for partners also that can manage the whole energy space as such. And we are one player into this, and we do believe engaging also into an opportunity like Alakavana makes us more able to take out sort of the margins out of that part of the industry. So, yeah, so that's sort of my two cents on that, Jon. Thanks. Okay, thank you. Thank you very much, Jon, we are one minute above the hour, so by that I would like to thank you all for calling in and thanks to the analysts for your questions. As usual, the IR team remain available if there are any follow-up. So please don't hesitate to reach out. Have a good rest of the day, everybody.