EVgo Q3 2026 Earnings Call - EVGO INC

Explicit Guidance:

• 2026 Revenue Guidance: Updated to $375–$400 million, reflecting lower throughput outlooks and adjusted stall cadence.
• 2026 Non-Core Revenue: Xtend construction revenue expected $90–$95 million; Avian ancillary revenue projected $30–$45 million (driven by one large AV site timing).
• 2026 Adjusted G&A: Expected $145 million (5% below prior guidance), with cost control initiatives aiming for ~15% reduction vs. prior 2027 G&A expectations.
• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Anticipated loss in the range of -$30 million to -$15 million.
• 2026 Stall Deployment: Expect to add 1,075–1,275 new stalls (including 600–750 public/AV and 475–525 Xtend stalls).
• 2026 Capex: Gross capital expenditure expected to be ~$100 million less than previous targets due to fewer, higher-quality site deployments.
• 2028 Outlook: Xtend business expected to trend to $5–$10 million annual revenue by 2028.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• NACS (North American Charging Standard) Expansion: Goal to retrofit all 2023 vintage and newer sites with NACS within two years (targeted to be two-thirds of the network by end of 2028). Current count: 290 NACS stalls; expected to reach ~400 by year-end 2026.
• Throughput Dynamics: NACS stalls currently account for 9% of public network throughput (up from <5% last year). While ramping, NACS stalls delivered 35% higher charge rates than CCS in Q3 2026. Management projects potential for ~400 kWh per stall/day if utilization matches current CCS levels.
• Next-Gen Architecture: Launching 750 kW charging architecture with dynamic power sharing in 2027; final design unveiled in 2027.
• Tesla Supercharger Integration: EVgo-branded Superchargers (owned by EVgo, operated by Tesla) to open in Q4 2026 (following the first Chicago site). Targeting hundreds of stalls nationwide. First site live with "flying start."
• Core Charging Revenue: 19th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth; Q3 2026 revenue $72 million (up 29% YoY).
• Legacy Asset Phase-out: 50 kW stalls (previously 70% of network) to be retired within the next couple of years; 70% of network now 350 kW+.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Addressable Market: Partnership with Tesla to deploy Superchargers and NACS connectivity is expected to double the addressable market.
• Usage Trends: NACS vehicles now ~60% of U.S. electric vehicles; expected to grow to >80% by 2030. Used EV drivers projected to be key growth drivers, relying more on public fast charging than new EV owners.
• Competitive Positioning: Shift to NACS standard expected to reduce friction and drive long-term adoption; EVgo leveraging "first-mover" status in retrofitting 350kW sites with NACS.
• Pricing Power: EVgo retains pricing authority on its Supercharger network and owns the assets, distinguishing the partnership model from standard CPOs.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• EV Sales Environment: New EV sales hit bottom in Spring 2026 with recovery trends anticipated through Q4 due to the expiration of federal incentives in September (creating a catch-up effect).
• Used EV Market: Strong, consistent growth in used EV sales identified as a major tailwind; used EV drivers charge more frequently on public networks than new owners.
• OEM Credits: Roll-off of low-margin legacy OEM charging credits expected to conclude by end of 2026, removing a temporary headwind to throughput per stall.
• Infrastructure: Federal incentives for infrastructure eliminated; management notes that growth is being driven by site host partnerships and operational efficiency rather than federal subsidies.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Site Host Expansion: Expanded partnerships with Brixmor (>500 new chargers, 25% of portfolio) and Regency Centers (>400 new chargers, 20% footprint increase) targeting 90+ centers with anchor tenants (Kroger, Albertsons, Whole Foods, etc.).
• Capital Efficiency: Shifting from high-volume build to "fewer, better sites" in high-demand locations; delaying some 2026 planned sites to 2027 to align with demand.
• Cost Control: Implementing G&A reductions (headcount, discretionary spend, AI leverage) to drive 15% lower G&A in 2027 vs. previous guidance.
• Asset Optimization: Removing lower-power legacy equipment and using AI-driven insights to optimize marketing and network health.
• M&A/Partnership Structure: EVgo owns/sets pricing for Superchargers; Tesla builds/maintains/operates. Board evaluating LS Power's unsolicited $2/share take-private offer (special committee formed).

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Throughput Pressure: Near-term pressure on throughput per stall expected as NACS ramps and 50 kW legacy stalls are phased out.
• Demand Volatility: Muted summer driving season and slower-than-expected EV sales growth (especially CCS) in 2026.
• Implementation Delays: Timing of the large AV site (late Q4 2026) could slip into 2027.
• Market Transition: Friction during the transition from CCS to NACS standards.
• Regulatory/Tax: Removal of federal incentives affecting purchase velocity.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: High confidence in path to sustainable profitability and adjusted EBITDA growth.
• Strategic Pivot: Explicit shift from aggressive volume growth to "quality over quantity" and capital efficiency.
• Long-Term View: Optimistic regarding the doubling of addressable market via Tesla partnership and NACS standardization; confident in the ability to "dial up or dial down" growth to control investment.
• Operational Resilience: Management emphasizes control over fixed costs and network health, citing that the business is already adjusted EBITDA positive without growth expenses.

Miscellaneous:

• Liquidity: Approximately $787 million in total liquidity (cash + available debt capacity) as of Sept 30, 2026.
• Network Scale: 5,530 stalls operational (up 20% YoY); 1.9 million+ customer accounts.
• Special Committee: Board formed to evaluate LS Power's unsolicited $2/share take-private offer; no decision made.