EVGO Q3 2026 EARNINGS CALL - EVGO INC

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2026 Revenue: Projected between $375M and $400M total.
  • Core Charging Revenue: $375M – $400M range implies lower throughput and updated stall cadence.
  • Non-Charging (Xtend): $90M – $95M (expected to trend lower to $5M–$10M annual run-rate by 2028).
  • Non-Charging (AV Ancillary): $30M – $45M (reflecting timing of one large AV site opening late Dec 2026, potentially slipping to early 2027).
• FY2026 Capex: Deploying 550–650 new public owned/operated sites; gross Capex spend is approximately $100M lower than prior 2026 targets.
• FY2026 Stalls: Expected additions of 1,075–1,275 total stalls (600–750 public/AV stalls; 475–525 Xtend stalls). One 50-stall AV site may operationalize late Q4 2026 or slip to 2027.
• FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Projected loss in the range of -$30M to -$15M.
• FY2026 Adjusted G&A: Approximately $145M (approx. 5% below initial $150M–$155M guidance).
• FY2027 Adjusted G&A: Expected to be ~15% below prior expectations, fully offsetting cost inflation and growth expenses.
• FY2027 Throughput: Mature 350kW machines targeted to reach ~300kWh daily throughput per stall (system-wide target by 2028).
• Share Count/Dividends: No explicit guidance on share count, dividends, or buybacks provided; Board reviewing LS Power's $2/share take-private offer with no decision made.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Network Architecture: Launching 750kW next-generation charging architecture in 2027; system features dynamic power sharing and touchless payment.
• NACS Deployment: Goal to equip all 2023-vintage and newer sites with NACS connectors within two years; targets 2/3 of the network (approx. 66%) to have NACS by end of 2028.
• NACS Throughput: NACS stalls currently account for 9% of network throughput; delivering 35% higher charge rates than CCS in Q3 2026. Potential to exceed 400kWh/day/stall if NACS utilization matches current CCS levels.
• Tesla Supercharger Expansion: Expecting hundreds of stalls nationwide; first Chicago site open, second Houston site expected Q4 2026. EVgo owns/selects/sets pricing; Tesla builds/maintains.
• Xtend Revenue: Expected to decline to a $5M–$10M annual run-rate by 2028.
• AV Ancillary Revenue: Episodic; timing dependent on long-duration project deployment (large AV site expected late 2026).
• Site Quality: Shift toward 20-stall flagship sites in high-quality locations; leveraging partnerships with Brixmor (500+ new chargers, 25%+ portfolio) and Regency Centers (400+ new chargers, 20%+ footprint).

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Addressable Market: NACS transition is expected to double EVgo's addressable market by capturing Tesla drivers without adapters.
• NACS Market Share: NACS vehicles currently ~60% of total EVs; projected to reach ~80%+ by 2030.
• Driver Behavior: Used EV drivers expected to rely more on public fast charging (less home charging) and charge at higher rates than new EV drivers.
• Throughput Trends: Q3 2026 daily throughput per stall down 4% YoY to 283kWh, but underlying growth (excluding OEM credits and low-power stalls) up 7% YoY.
• Pricing/Utilization: Charging gross margin 39% (TTM); OEM credits contributed 13kWh/stall/day in Q3 2026 (down 69% YoY), masking 7% underlying revenue growth.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• EV Sales Environment: EV sales hit a bottom in Spring 2026; expects strong YoY growth in Oct–Dec 2026 vs. 2025 due to the roll-off of federal incentives in September 2025.
• Seasonality: Summer driving season in 2026 lacked typical pickup; industry-wide slowdown observed.
• OEM Credits: Low-margin legacy OEM charging credits rolling off; expected to conclude by end of 2026.
• Legacy Hardware: 50kW stalls (previously 70% of network) being removed within next few years; network now 70% 350kW or higher.
• Regulatory: Federal incentives for EV purchases and infrastructure eliminated in 2025.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Next-Gen Deployment: 750kW charging architecture to be unveiled in 2027 with deployment to follow.
• Network Optimization: Moving fewer, higher-quality sites; sliding planned 2026 sites to later dates for higher ROI.
• Cost Control: Implementing G&A reductions (headcount, discretionary spend, AI leverage); targeting adjusted G&A ~15% below prior 2027 view ($173M–$178M implied).
• Partnerships: Expanding agreements with Brixmor and Regency Centers (900+ new chargers total); continued focus on grocery store locations (e.g., Meijer).
• Retrofitting: Removing lower-power legacy equipment; retrofitting 350kW sites with NACS connectors.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Execution Risks: Timing of NACS rollout and EVgo Supercharger sites creating near-term pressure on throughput per stall as connectors ramp.
• Demand Variance: EV sales slower than originally expected in US; used EV adoption timing uncertain.
• Seasonality: Potential for muted summer driving season growth to persist.
• Regulatory/Incentive Changes: Elimination of federal incentives affecting new EV sales and demand growth.
• OEM Credit Roll-off: Loss of low-margin revenue sources reducing margins if not offset by organic growth.
• Take-Private Proposal: Board reviewing LS Power's unsolicited $2/share offer; uncertainty regarding final transaction terms or timing.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: "Very excited" about long-term value creation and path to sustainable profitability; confident in business model's ability to dial up/down growth.
• Sentiment: Optimistic about NACS transition as a "tremendous positive tailwind" and "turning point" for the company; views 2027 vintage cohorts as "best performing" despite smaller size.
• Hedges: Acknowledges "softer" Q3 performance due to temporary factors (OEM credits, low-power stalls) and explicitly states underlying growth is strong (7% YoY) when adjusted.

Miscellaneous:

• Liquidity: Approximately $787M available liquidity (cash + $620M debt facility capacity).
• Debt Facilities: $750M DOE loan (available through Jan 2030, matures 2042); $300M commercial facility (available through July 2028, matures 2030).
• Board Action: Special committee of independent directors established to evaluate LS Power's take-private proposal.
• Customer Base: Over 1.9 million customer accounts; 3.5 million Tesla drivers now have access via EVgo Superchargers and NACS.