EXODUS Q3 2026 EARNINGS WEBCAST - EXODUS MOVEMENT INC

Explicit Guidance:

• Revenue Growth: Anticipates "meaningful overall revenue growth in 2027" driven by stabilized crypto markets and restored payments card issuance in the U.S.
• Cost Structure & EBITDA:
  • On track to reduce annual operating costs by approximately $30 million going into 2027 (up from the original $10–$13 million headcount savings target achieved).
  • Q4 2026 and 2027 outlook: Expect adjusted EBITDA losses to fall to < $1 million per month (based on September run-rate), with further efficiency gains expected in Q4 before planned growth spending resumes.
• Share Count/Dividends: No specific guidance provided; currently no debt on the balance sheet.
• Capex/Opex: Planning to resume "spending some more money on growth" at some point in the new year (2027) to offset cost efficiencies.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Consumer (Exodus Wallet):
  • U.S. Market: Card issuance restarted via new partnership; focus on supporting customer programs and exploring additional U.S. issuing partners.
  • Europe: Submitted change of control application to the Bank of Latvia for the Tixi Pay acquisition; expects "positive outcome towards end of this year" (end of 2026) but notes final approval is not guaranteed. Card issuance in Europe remains paused until regulatory clearance.
  • Stablecoin (ExoCash): Expanding distribution within the wallet and developing enterprise use cases; aiming to enable users to spend Bitcoin/XRP via card networks in the near future.
  • AI Agents: Launching "Agent Kit" (timeline unspecified, referenced as a future capability) to allow AI agents to make payments within defined budgets and guardrails using ExoCash.
• Enterprise (ExoSuite/Monovate):
  • Product Strategy: Deploying a "menu of ingredients" platform (API-driven) including card issuance, self-custody wallets, stablecoin services, and compliance modules for B2B clients.
  • Target Customers: Fintechs building modern financial accounts; digital asset platforms; supply chain/commercial payment solutions using virtual cards.
  • Revenue Model: Expected to evolve from single-service relationships (card issuance) to multi-service bundles (wallet + stablecoin + payments) over time.
  • Timeline: Expect "more about this" (stablecoin/enterprise integration) to be detailed as progress continues into 2027.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Stablecoin Growth: Highlights that stablecoin transfer volume ($33T+ in a recent period) has exceeded Visa/Mastercard volumes; views stablecoins as the "transit medium" for future cross-border payments and settlement.
• Agentic Commerce: Identifies a structural shift where AI agents will act on behalf of users, creating a new market for automated payments within budgets. Positions Exodus as core infrastructure for this "agentic wave."
• Tokenized Securities: Roadmap includes integration of tokenized stock/asset trading (e.g., Solana-based TSPs) into the Exodus app "SEP's innovation section" as soon as practical.
• Competition: Notes major payments and banking incumbents are investing heavily in bridging fiat and on-chain finance; Exodus claims unique positioning by offering wallet, payments, swaps, and stablecoins in a single stack.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Crypto Market: Believes crypto markets are "stabilizing" and have recovered from July lows; views the "rise of stable coins" and AI IPOs as signals of the "mainstream agentic moment."
• Regulatory: Monitoring Bank of Latvia review for Tixi Pay; acknowledges "regulatory non-objection" as a critical dependency for European expansion.
• AI Trend: Cites adoption of protocols like X402 (for AI-to-site commerce) as evidence of growing AI agent payment infrastructure needs.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Corporate Restructuring: Establishing a group holding company with two distinct divisions: Consumer (Exodus Wallet) and Enterprise (Monovate).
• AI Integration: Positioning ExoCash as the primary stablecoin for AI agents, offering interoperability with X402 services and enabling "guardrails" for agent spending.
• Partnerships:
  • UFC: Ongoing marketing activation (tickets, athlete partnerships) to drive consumer acquisition; focus on hospitality experiences.
  • Tokenized Assets: Integration of tokenized securities trading platforms.
• Product Launches:
  • Agent Kit: Future launch to facilitate AI agent wallet creation and payment limits.
  • ExoCash Expansion: Enabling enterprise clients to issue "branded" ExoCash within their own products.
  • Crypto Card Spending: Announcing capability to spend non-stablecoins (e.g., Bitcoin, XRP) via Visa/Mastercard networks.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Regulatory Approval: Finalization of the Tixi Pay acquisition in Latvia is subject to "regulatory non-objection" and closing conditions; delay impacts European card issuance resumption.
• Execution Dependency: Progress relies on "partner readiness," "regulatory approvals," and "disciplined execution."
• Market Volatility: Digital asset services revenue remains sensitive to crypto market cycles, though currently stabilizing.
• Competition: Intense investment by "largest names in payments and banking" to capture the on-chain/fiat bridge market.
• Compliance: Regulatory constraints limit the ability to disclose exact stablecoin holding volumes.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: Cautiously optimistic ("encouraged by the progress") but acknowledges being "still early" in the transformation.
• Strategic Shift: Frames the company as moving from a "wallet company" to a "payments company" with a "leaner operating model."
• Long-term Vision: Expresses strong conviction in the "agentic commerce" thesis, comparing current AI agent adoption readiness to the early internet days (Bill Gates/Dave Letterman analogy).
• Operational Discipline: Emphasizes "execution as the standard" to be judged by, focusing on measurable efficiency gains and revenue growth in 2027.

Miscellaneous:

• Backlog/Pipeline: Michael Rolfe notes the pipeline for new enterprise customers is "full of exciting new prospects" ready for onboarding pending regulatory approval.
• Customer Retention: Confirmed that customer churn has been "held steady" despite card issuance pauses due to existing customer operations remaining uninterrupted.
• Volume Metrics: Q3 digital asset exchange volume rose 7% (Aug to Sep) and 28% (Jul to Sep); Q3 payments transaction volume hit ~$1B (up from ~$600M YoY).