GRAB Q3 2026 EARNINGS CALL - GRAB HOLDINGS LTD

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2026 Full Year: Raised Group Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $790 million–$800 million (previously $720 million–$740 million), representing a 16%–58% year-over-year expansion.
• 2028 Targets: Reiterated Group Revenue CAGR of >30% and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion.
• FY2028 Segment Targets: Financial Services adjusted EBITDA target of $500 million (comprising ~$300M from Atomi/Superbank and ~$200M from other products); Deliveries segment margin target of 4%+; Loan book target of >$6 billion (including Atomi).
• Q4 2026 Outlook: EBITDA expected to remain stable relative to Q3 2026; corporate costs projected to remain fairly stable in the second half of the year.
• Share Buybacks: Committed to completing the remaining $500 million of a $900 million total program over the next 12 months (by September 2027), following $400 million repurchased in Sept–Oct. All shares repurchased will be cancelled.
• Capex/Investment: $160 million set aside within the 2028 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to fund GrabMall and GrabMart product-driven growth investments.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Financial Services: First profitable quarter achieved (Q3 2026: $12M adjusted EBITDA); Atomi acquisition expected to accelerate profitability by adding mature consumer lending models (OpenLoop BNPL) and a 30,000-brand retail network; expected to contribute $300M of the $500M 2028 EBITDA target.
• Deliveries: Expected to see progressive margin improvement year-over-year toward the 4% target; GrabMall (branded retail commerce) launched in Q3 and will expand across the region; GrabMart GMV growing 1.8x faster than food; advertising revenue growing as scale attracts FMCG advertisers.
• Mobility: Leaning into Q4 to secure driver capacity (active driver base up 20% YoY) and deploy targeted marketplace investments to support affordability during high-season (festive/tourist) volume; margins expanded to 8.9% in Q3.
• Customer Metrics: Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) at record 57 million (up 20% YoY); Grab Unlimited subscribers represent >20% of deliveries MTUs but generate 35% of deliveries GMV and transact 3x more frequently.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Regional Growth: Southeast Asia projected to expand well above global average in 2026 (IMF forecast); Grab positioned as the key enabler with 900+ cities coverage.
• Adoption Trends: Cross-sell intensity rising; users shopping both GrabFood and GrabMart account for 43% of food GMV with 10% larger baskets; Groceries GMV growing 1.8x faster than food.
• Supply Side: Driver AI assistant utilized by ~500,000 drivers, leading to >10% higher earnings per online hour; Merchant AI assistant ("Mai") users earning 20% more on average; Active advertisers up 39% YoY.
• Pricing Strategy: Leaning into affordability to drive MTU growth (3 million new users added in quarter); increased driver incentives in Q4 to prevent price hikes and ensure service reliability.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Fuel Costs: Elevated fuel prices expected to persist into Q4 2026, pressuring driver earnings; Grab to continue supporting partners through incentives and AI tools.
• Indonesia Regulation: New two-wheeler commission framework active; government evaluating on-demand logistics guidelines focusing on driver earnings and fee transparency; management expects no material impact to business guidance.
• AI Economy: AI agents anticipated to become a new transaction vector; management expects agent-originated orders to become a growing customer acquisition channel over time.
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): Transition to AVs in Southeast Asia projected to take ~10 years due to weather complexities and lower human driver costs; expect a hybrid dispatch model with AVs and human drivers operating side-by-side.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Atomi Acquisition: Proposed acquisition remains pending regulatory completion; integration expected to unlock consumer lending scale and retail brand partnerships by 2027.
• AI Education Partnership: OpenAI partnership announced in September; aim to equip 30,000 driver and merchant partners with practical AI skills over two years. Rollout: Singapore (done), Thailand (Oct), Indonesia/Philippines (end of year), Malaysia/Vietnam (2027).
• Meta Muse Integration: Early connector partner for Meta's "Muse" AI agent in Singapore, piloting on GrabMart and Dine Out; inventory and transaction data remain within Grab.
• Autonomous Vehicle Expansion: Fleet in Singapore expanding 5-fold to 50 vehicles; preparing for commercial autonomous ride-hailing launch on the Grab app in coming months; adding 40 more AVs in anticipation of wider adoption.
• Grab Unlimited Expansion: Extending benefits to mobility verticals where supply is healthy; leveraging user base for merchant-funded promotions (up 48% YoY); expanding external partnerships (e.g., free ChatGPT Plus, Trip.com discounts).
• M&A Discipline: Prioritizing core business investments (mobility, deliveries, financial services); no immediate new M&A announced other than Atomi; previously rejected Foodpanda Taiwan acquisition.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Operational: Persistently elevated fuel prices impacting driver take-home pay and requiring increased incentives; Indonesia regulatory framework changes regarding commissions and earnings transparency.
• M&A: Atomi acquisition remains subject to completion; regulatory approval timelines in Southeast Asia.
• Technology: AV technology limitations in Southeast Asian extreme weather conditions; long transition period for AV cost-displacement vs. human labor.
• Macro: Inflation-tightened household spending; potential for higher consumer incentives needed to maintain volume if economic headwinds persist.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: "Conviction in the region has never been stronger"; management views current profitability milestones as durable, not a one-quarter story.
• Personal Commitment: CEO Anthony Tan personally purchased additional shares.
• Strategic Shift: Emphasis on "AI first with heart" and structural lowering of compute costs (down 42% QoQ) while interactions grow 60%.
• Guidance Philosophy: Prudent and transparent; deliberately holding back Q4 margin expansion to reinvest in driver capacity and high-growth product launches (GrabMall, GXS card) to capture seasonal market share.

Miscellaneous:

• Segment Profitability: First time all three core segments (Mobility, Deliveries, Financial Services) are profitable in a single quarter.
• Free Cash Flow: Nearly doubled trailing 12-month adjusted free cash flow to $553 million.
• Earnings Call Details: Accepts questions via IRMO (investor.relationsatgrab.com); discusses non-IFRS measures alongside IFRS.