Hyperliquid Has 0.1% Of Wall St's Trading. At 1%, Fees 10x | David Schamis - HYPERLIQUID STRATEGIES INC

Based on the provided transcript, here is the extraction and summary of forward-looking statements:

• Explicit Guidance:

  • No explicit financial guidance (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, etc.) with specific numbers or ranges is provided.
  • Management explicitly states: "I can't put a number on it" regarding future volumes and revenue growth targets for the next 12–18 months, noting that "we'd be upset" if growth is slightly below current expectations and "happy" if slightly above, but offering no specific quantitative targets.
  • No specific dates for financial inflection points (e.g., breakeven, specific profit levels) are given.

• Business-Segment Outlook:

  • HIP3 (Real World Assets) Expansion: Anticipates a significant increase in Real World Assets (RWAs) such as oil, equities (Tesla, S&P), and potentially Chinese stocks (onshore/offshore) becoming available on the platform.
  • Volume Composition: Projects a structural shift where revenue mix moves from 100% crypto (one year ago) to a "tremendous" mix of RWAs and crypto, driven by the expanded Total Addressable Market (TAM).
  • Market Launches: Expects "more than one" HIP3 market to go live in the next 12–18 months. Specific mention of "cracking" (oil/energy markets) as a likely launch, alongside other potential asset classes.
  • Ecosystem Partnerships: Foresees Hyperliquid's "first partner" in the U.S. being Kraken, but explicitly states this "won't be their last," anticipating further institutional partnerships as the U.S. regulatory environment evolves.
  • Revenue Generation: Hyperliquid Strategies (the company behind the HYPE token) intends to generate earnings beyond simply holding the token to maintain a premium to net asset value (NAV > 1).

• Market and Competitive Outlook:

  • TAM Growth: Believes the crypto market cap is currently only ~50% of NVIDIA's market cap, implying massive headroom for growth.
  • Pie Expansion: Predicts that regulation and the availability of new instruments (perpetuals) will expand the total market "pie" rather than just cannibalizing existing volume from traditional exchanges (CME/ICE), citing increased arbitrage opportunities and hedging choices.
  • Instrument Preference: Anticipates perpetuals will continue to gain traction over options due to superior liquidity aggregation (single contract vs. thousands of strike/expiry combinations) and tighter bid-ask spreads.
  • Institutional Adoption: Identifies a significant "unlock" of non-U.S. institutional capital (e.g., French institutions) that requires a U.S.-regulated stack to enter, predicting this will drive volume once U.S. regulations (FCM/DCM) are fully adopted by the platform.
  • Competitive Landscape: Views the sector as moving toward a "infrastructure" model (like AWS) where Hyperliquid provides the rails and third-party builders (e.g., TradeXYZ) capture specific market segments.

• Macro / Industry Outlook:

  • Regulation: Views U.S. regulation as a catalyst for growth rather than a threat. Predicts that full regulatory acceptance (legal in U.S., "total regulatory stack") will unlock a "huge" number of new traders, including U.S. retail, U.S. institutional, and global institutions previously unable to access decentralized exchanges.
  • Economic Impact: Suggests that the growth of on-chain derivatives and arbitrage will inherently increase total market volumes across the board.
  • Currency/Asset Class: Anticipates the introduction of complex asset classes, including potential exposure to restricted markets like Chinese stocks, via the HIP3 protocol.

• Strategic Initiatives:

  • Hyperliquid U.S. Expansion: The primary strategic focus for the next 12–18 months is facilitating Hyperliquid's entry into the United States.
  • Hyperliquid Strategies Capital Deployment: Management is evaluating "a handful" of deals to generate revenue and earnings. These initiatives are specifically targeted at adding value to the Hyperliquid ecosystem and are expected to be "meaningful" enough to move the needle on a $4B market cap company.
  • Tokenomics Discipline: Plans to continue the aggressive buyback policy ("99% of that revenue every single day goes into the buyback") rather than reinvesting in new ventures that management cannot execute better than partners, maintaining the "equity-like" value accrual mechanism.
  • Partnership Model: Willingness to allow third parties (builders) to run specific asset classes (e.g., oil, tech stocks) in exchange for revenue share, rather than Hyperliquid building these vertically in-house.

• Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

  • Execution Dependency: Acknowledges that the company remains heavily dependent on the team's continued execution and "belief" in the founders (Jeff Yan), noting that financial services franchises lack "moats" like Coca-Cola's formula.
  • Regulatory Uncertainty: While positive on the eventual outcome, the outlook relies on the "full regulatory stack" becoming available in the U.S., which is a prerequisite for the anticipated institutional unlock.
  • Capital Allocation Risk: Warns that management must continue to make "good decisions" regarding capital deployment; past success (95% value from token selection) does not guarantee future outperformance if new initiatives fail.
  • Market Fragmentation: Implicit risk that traditional exchanges (CME, ICE) may eventually develop competitive solutions, though management currently views them as "short-sighted."
  • Lack of Specificity: The inability to quantify future volumes or specific revenue targets introduces uncertainty regarding the timeline for "success" metrics.

• Management Tone on the Future:

  • Confident but Cautious: Highly confident in the long-term structural thesis (TAM expansion, RWA potential, infrastructure role) but cautious about specific numerical outcomes ("can't put a number on it").
  • Long-term View: Focuses on multi-year horizons (12–18 months for launches, long-term for RWA adoption) rather than short-term quarterly beats.
  • Humble/Pragmatic: Emphasizes the necessity of "belief" in the team and acknowledges the risk of relying on key individuals; advocates for a partnership ecosystem over vertical integration.
  • Forward-Looking Optimism: Expresses a belief that the market is still "figuring out" the value proposition, with the majority of the investor base currently unaware of the platform's potential ("45-minute discussion" required to explain the thesis).
  • No Guidance Hedges: Does not provide forward guidance but explicitly frames the strategy around "meaningful" initiatives that must "move the needle."

• Miscellaneous:

  • Token Supply/Market Cap: Management equates the "true" market cap of HYPE to circulating supply + team-locked tokens (unlockable over time), estimating this at approximately $475 million outstanding (though this is a valuation methodology, not a future guidance).
  • OTM Activity: Mentions a recent ~$320M OTC block trade as an indicator of institutional interest, speculating (without confirmation) that it could be a traditional institution like ICE.
  • Comparison: Frequently compares Hyperliquid's potential trajectory to AWS (infrastructure model) and traditional financial services firms (people/ex execution dependent).