Federal Reserve Speeches·May 27, 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Jefferson, Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy

Global energy prices have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, posing growth risks & inflation risks, particularly for net importers like Japan.
The U.S. is a net energy exporter but remains vulnerable to global supply disruptions, with gasoline prices notably elevated.
Rapid AI advancement is viewed as a productivity driver, though its labor market & inflation effects are being monitored.
Post-pandemic disruptions to global trade flows continue to impact supply & price levels.
U.S. economic growth is solid but expected to moderate this year as households face high energy costs.
The U.S. labor market remains stable with low hiring & firing levels, though downside risks are skewed.
Disinflation stalled recently due to increased tariffs, while recent inflation rises were driven by higher energy costs.
Inflation is expected to decline later this year as tariff & energy shock effects wane, but upside risks to the outlook persist.
The Federal Reserve remains committed to returning inflation to its 2% target & achieving maximum employment.
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% in late April.
The current policy stance allows for data-dependent responses, with no prejudgment on the next meeting.