Marti Co-Founder and President Cankut Durgun is back with Dr. Christianson - MARTI TECHNOLOGIES INC

Explicit Guidance:

• Revenue Forecast: Forecast of $85 million in net revenue for 2026.
• Growth Trajectory: Revenue has more than doubled year-over-year for the past two to three years; management assumes this trajectory will persist into 2027.
• Profitability: Anticipated 15% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year (noting Q3 results in November will provide further data); assumes this margin expands as gross margins (currently 77%) flow through to the bottom line.
• Loss Contraction: Underlying net loss (excluding one-time $8.3M non-cash debt extinguishment loss in Q2) was $4.2M in Q2, down >50% YoY (previous year: $9.2B); expects continued reduction as scale increases.
• Debt Maturity: Convertible notes structure includes $80M+ maturing in July 2028 (10% cash + 5% PIK) and ~$20M maturing in April 2029 (12.5% PIK, no cash).
• Headcount/Fixed Costs: Engineering and G&A headcount expected to remain flat in 2026–2027, with output increased via AI utilization.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Geographic Expansion: Current focus on deepening penetration in existing 30 cities (representing 85% of Turkey's GDP) rather than adding new cities; goal to reach ~67% of business from non-Istanbul cities (up from 46% currently).
• Monetization Roadmap: Targeting expansion from 7 monetized cities to all 30; assumes a 2-year timeline from city launch to monetization similar to the Istanbul experience (Istanbul launched late 2022, monetized late 2024).
• Delivery Services: Currently limited to Istanbul; actively considering expansion to other cities based on promising Istanbul growth metrics.
• Super App Ambition (2030): Targeting 1.0–1.5 million drivers and mass adoption across Turkey's 80M+ population; intends to increase take rates from mid-teens to ~30% (global average).
• New Revenue Streams: Planned introduction of financial services (wallets, P2P transfers) and other adjacent O2O services in the long term.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Competitive Moat: Maintaining dominance over international rivals (e.g., Uber) via superior local operations, regulatory relationships, and cost structure advantages (lower labor costs, lower insurance premiums).
• Autonomous Vehicles (AV): Partnering with Tensor (non-exclusive) and in advanced talks with two other providers to deploy AVs; aims to build the "TurkAI Autonomous Vehicle Alliance" with multiple suppliers rather than a single exclusive partner.
• Market Share: Anticipated steady-state market share significantly higher in non-Istanbul cities; expects to capture a substantial portion of the remaining 20% share in Istanbul.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Regulatory Environment: Current ride-hailing ruling by the Istanbul Commercial Court (June) classified the service as "unfair competition" to taxis at the first instance level only; appeals process is ongoing. Management views this as a global industry challenge and expects formalization of the sector similar to 151 other countries.
• Government Policy: Turkey has a National AI Action Plan (signed by President Erdogan) favorable to AVs and AI, establishing pilot zones and sandbox requirements; actively working to align with these regulatory frameworks.
• Infrastructure: Turkey's status as a major vehicle manufacturing hub (particularly Bursa) provides a logistical advantage for AV deployment.
• Economic Factors: Anticipates continued benefit from lower Turkish minimum wages and insurance premiums compared to international peers, supporting high gross margins.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Autonomous Vehicle Deployment: Aiming to scale to 10,000–100,000+ autonomous vehicles in Turkey in steady state; prioritizing safety and regulatory alignment over rapid initial deployment of small pilot fleets.
• Operational Efficiency: Leveraging AI to increase output of engineering and G&A teams without headcount expansion in 2026–2027.
• M&A/Partnerships: Building a supplier-agnostic AV alliance; no specific M&A targets mentioned beyond technology partnerships.
  Timing: Monetization rollout to follow 2-year post-launch pattern; AV pilots scheduled in line with regulatory approval under the National AI Action Plan (timeline not specified beyond "working to deploy").

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Monetization Speed: Risk of slowing demand growth or driver attrition if monetization (subscription fees) is implemented before achieving sufficient liquidity and stable rider/driver economics.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Ongoing appeal of the "unfair competition" court ruling; potential for stricter regulations or limitations if the first-instance ruling is upheld.
• AV Integration: Technical and safety challenges in deploying AVs in "chaotic and dense" urban environments like Istanbul; dependency on successful regulatory sandbox approvals.
• Financing Costs: Current net losses are partially driven by financing costs; path to refinancing or reducing cost of capital is contingent on future financial profile improvements.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: High confidence in structural advantages (cost base, gross margins) and the "domestic champion" thesis in large markets.
• Strategic Patience: Emphasis on "first to tens of thousands" rather than "first to few" for AVs; prioritizes long-term safety and scale over speed.
• Operational Discipline: Clear phased approach to monetization (2-year growth window) to minimize disruption to liquidity.
• Longevity: Founders view the company as a long-term venture (2030+ horizon), aiming to become a "mobility super app" with financial services integration.

Miscellaneous:

• Market Size: Operating in the 30 largest cities (85% of Turkey's GDP); Istanbul alone has ~20M people and is among the top 5 most congested cities globally.
• Current Metrics (Reference for Future): 5.65M riders, 630K drivers (1.5X growth outside Istanbul vs. prior year); 77% gross margin in Q2.