Marti Technologies, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call - MARTI TECHNOLOGIES INC

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2026 Revenue: Reaffirmed at $85 million; Q1-Q3 2026 revenue of $60.1 million represents 71% of the full-year target.
• FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Reaffirmed at $7 million; Q1-Q3 2026 actuals of $8 million already exceed this guidance.
• Q4 2026 Outlook: Anticipated to be seasonally slower than Q2/Q3 with no major uplift; no revision to FY2026 guidance due to planned increased marketing investment to position for 2027 growth.
• FY2027 Outlook: Management intends to release a new forecast for 2027 by the end of the current year, dependent on returns from current marketing investments.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Geographic Expansion: Currently operating in 40 cities covering ~90% of Turkey's GDP; added 10 new cities in October; no immediate plans to significantly increase take rates or add new cities to the monetization mix until existing cities reach a 2–2.5 year maturity mark.
• Network Milestones: Target to reach 5.65 million all-time unique ride-hailing riders and 630,000 registered drivers by December 31, 2026.
• Fleet Optimization: Continued gradual decommissioning of two-wheeled electric vehicles introduced in 2021 to optimize fleet efficiency.
• Monetization Strategy: Expect take rates to remain stable in the near term; monetization expansion will lag city launches by approximately two years based on historical Istanbul patterns.
• Autonomous Mobility: First "Calm Car" equipped vehicle arrived in October; plans for closed-area testing in Istanbul pending required test codes; goal to deploy sub-10 AVs in pilot agreements within the next 12 months.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Competitive Landscape: Describes the ride-hailing sub-segment in Turkey as a "monopoly" with no meaningful competition currently; views the broader transportation space as competitive but holds a clear leadership position in car and motorcycle hailing.
• Market Size: Turkey's mobility market estimated to carry ~4 million daily trips (1+ billion annually); current volume is considered a fraction of total potential.
• Market Dynamics: Anticipates that as the company scales, legal challenges will become "noise" in the background rather than operational impediments.
• Unit Economics: Gross profit margin reached 81.5% in Q3, surpassing previous 80% expectations; management remains open to monitoring for potential ceilings up to 85%.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Regulatory Environment: Management views the recent appeals court ruling affirming "freedom of enterprise" as a strong, overarching legal base that will likely render ongoing legal disputes insignificant as operations scale.
• Turkey Economy: Leverages Turkey's specific structural advantages, including lower insurance premiums and lower labor costs, to sustain higher margins than international benchmarks.
• Seasonality: Fourth quarter historically lower volume for both ride-hailing and e-mobility segments.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Autonomous Ecosystem: Expanded partnerships with TENSOR and "Calm Car" to build a multi-partner ecosystem for autonomous mobility in Turkey.
• Financing: Extended convertible note facility maturity to mid-2028 (July 2028) for up to $100 million to allow optionality for competitive or growth-related needs; issuance of commitment shares expected in the current quarter.
• Management Incentives: Implemented a new management incentive plan comprising 10% of fully diluted outstanding shares, with allocations occurring currently and in the future.
• Technology: Continued refinement of AI-driven dynamic pricing, supply/demand forecasting, and batch matching algorithms to improve efficiency as transaction volume scales.
• Cost Structure: No significant changes anticipated for new city launches; expansion costs remain low due to centralized HQ in Istanbul and minimal local investment per new city.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Guiding Caveats: Fourth quarter results may not exceed full-year guidance due to conservative positioning and deliberate marketing spend increases intended to drive 2027 growth.
• Legal Risks: While the base case is strong, opponents may attempt a "war of attrition" through volume of court cases, though management believes this tactic is ineffective.
• Operational Uncertainty: Autonomous vehicle fleet financing (third-party vs. Marti) and scaling logistics remain undetermined for the pilot phase.
• Market Maturity: Engagement metrics in newly launched cities are currently lower; full engagement improvements are expected only as these markets mature over a 2–3 year period.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: High confidence in the business model's scale and operating leverage, citing the ability to grow revenue significantly without corresponding cost increases.
• Forward-Looking Stance: Shift in focus toward "disciplined growth" and investing marketing spend to fuel 2027 expansion, with a conservative approach to 2026 guidance revisions.
• Strategic Positioning: Viewed as "leading in uncharted territory" with structural cost advantages and a unique operational competency in managing field logistics (charging, maintenance, safety) which translates effectively to autonomous vehicle operations.

Miscellaneous:

• Share Count: No specific diluted share count projection for year-end provided during the call; details of the management incentive plan (10% dilution) and commitment shares (for financing agreement) are in SEC filings.
• Legal Precedent: Management cited a specific 14th Court of Appeals decision in Istanbul as a national-level indicator that ride-hailing cannot be shut down without specific legislative bans.
• Non-GAAP Measures: Adjusted EBITDA calculation revised starting Q2 2026; prior periods restated for comparability.