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New Humana Healthcare Research Study Finds Favorable Selection in Medicare Advantage is Substantially Lower Than MedPAC Estimates

HUM
  • A Humana Healthcare Research study published in Health Affairs Scholar finds favorable selection in Medicare Advantage is 42%-65% lower than prior estimates.
  • Previous estimates often cited a 10%-15% range, whereas the new study calculates favorable selection at 4.9%-5.8% using data from 2020 through 2022.
  • The reduced estimates result from a methodological refinement that uses comprehensive encounter data to evaluate the full MA population directly rather than relying on extrapolations from limited subsets.
  • These findings suggest favorable selection has a smaller impact on MA payments than previously indicated in policy debates.
  • Dr. Sanjay Shetty of CenterWell stated the study provides new evidence on measuring favorable selection & highlights the value of comprehensive data for payment policy.
  • The research underscores the importance of continued methodological refinement to ensure more grounded estimates in Medicare Advantage payment policy.