Nordic Funds & Mines 2026 Main Stage Day 2 Morning - DOLLY VARDEN SILVER CORP
Explicit Guidance:
- American Gold and Silver (AGS): Corporate guidance for current year (2026 implied by "2025" context in transcript) is 3.2–3.6 million ounces of silver production. Long-term target is to return to 5 million ounces per year at the Galena Mine.
- West Red Lake Gold Mines: Production growth expected to expand in 2027 with "materially different" guidance to be released in the first half of 2027. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) projected to range between $2,500–$2,800 USD at full production (Madsen mill capacity).
- McEwen Mining: Gold equivalent production projected to grow from ~115,000 ounces in 2026 to nearly 300,000 ounces by the end of 2030. Projected asset-level free cash flow of $270 million by end of 2028, discounted to ~$200 million.
- Regulus Resources: Antiquari project development timeline expects to be ready for sale/monetization in a "hot" copper market; specific production start dates not set but aligned with major company acquisition timing.
- Nordics Metals: Planned financing completion expected within 4–6 weeks. New drill holes (20) on Ryuta project expected to be released before end of year. Dublon project in Sweden planned for drilling in 2027.
- Golconda Gold: Production ramp-up to 40,000 ounces annually at Galaxy Mine in South Africa over the next 4–5 years (targeting 2030). New production at Summit Mine (USA) expected by November 2026, ramping to 14,000–15,000 gold equivalent ounces annually.
- First Mining Gold: Targeting a construction decision for Spring Pole in March 2028. Project financing for Spring Pole targeted for September/October 2027. Resource update and Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) update for Du Parquet expected by mid-2027 (June).
- Gold Royalty Corp: Revenue guidance of >$120 million by end of decade at current gold prices. Gold equivalent ounces expected to increase six-fold from 2025 actuals to the midpoint of 2030 guidance.
- Starcore International: Guidance to produce 35,000 ounces within 18–24 months. Five-year (5.5-year) cash flow projection of 221,000–222,000 gold equivalent ounces with significant net cash flow impact.
- Aya Gold & Silver: Current year guidance met for 6 million ounces at the Zegounder mine. Boumadine project targeting 400,000 gold equivalent ounces per year in production within three years. Cash flow guidance of $1.1 billion by current year (projected from $268 million base).
Business-Segment Outlook:
- American Gold and Silver: Galena Complex is the primary focus, shifting from underhand cut-and-fill to 70% long-hole stoping to increase productivity and lower costs. The Crescent Mine acquisition expects ore to hit the mill in 2027. Cosla operations in Mexico are projected to maintain or exceed 1.2 million ounces of silver annually, serving as the primary cash generator.
- McEwen Mining: Gold/Silver business includes Fox Mine (Ontario), Gold Bar Mine (Nevada), and San Jose Mine (Argentina). Growth pipeline includes Gray Fox, Stock Deposit (Timmins), Tartan Project (Manitoba), and a Mexico mill project. McEwen Copper (46% owned) aims to become a public entity via IPO in 2027, with Los Azules targeting 205,000 tons of copper cathode annually with a 21-year mine life.
- West Red Lake Gold Mines: Expansion strategy relies on the "hub-and-spoke" model, feeding the Madsen mill with satellite deposits Fork (contribution expected in 2027) and 904 complex (2027 profile). Rowan deposit (335k oz indicated resource) is integrated into an upcoming pre-feasibility study to support a 100,000 oz annual profile.
- Regulus Resources: Antiquari project (Peru) is a brownfield consolidation opportunity adjacent to the closing-life Cerro Corona and Tantaua Thai mines. The company intends to sell the fully de-risked project to a major miner rather than build it themselves.
- Golconda Gold: Galaxy Mine (South Africa) targeting 50% production growth this year and ramp to 40,000 oz by 2030. Summit Mine (USA) restarting production in November 2026, with a potential spin-out of the US asset as a standalone entity by end of 2027.
- First Mining Gold: Spring Pole is an advanced open-pit project (300k+ oz annual capacity). Du Parquet is a 6M oz project moving toward PFS update mid-next year. Both projects aim for construction decisions and shovel-in-ground events prior to 2030.
- Starcore International: Three revenue streams identified: San Martin oxide ore (current), La Tortilla silver lease (adding ~10k oz), and exploration targets on the San Martin property (4 geophysical anomalies).
- Aya Gold & Silver: Zegounder mine (pure silver) has an 11-year life with 6M oz production. Boumadine project (gold/silver) is entering construction with a 3-year ramp to 400k oz annual production. Both assets are fully permitted.
Market and Competitive Outlook:
- Silver: AGS and Aya position themselves as primary leveraged plays on silver, anticipating significant price appreciation. Aya predicts a "20-bagger" if silver prices follow Don Durette's forecast.
- Copper: McEwen and Regulus anticipate a structural deficit in copper by 2040 (S&P estimates 10M tonnes missing), with Greenfield mines taking 30+ years to permit. McEwen Copper targets a re-rating upon going public to match peer multiples ($2B valuation for the subsidiary).
- Gold: McEwen projects a $2B valuation for its gold/silver business by 2028 based on free cash flow multiples. First Mining Gold and West Red Lake highlight the scarcity of advanced permitting in Canada as a key competitive advantage, with only a few projects expected to break ground before 2030.
- M&A: Regulus expects an M&A cycle peak for copper exploration assets driven by major miners needing to replace declining production, with targets to sell projects at "high copper market" moments. Golconda sees potential for consolidating the Summit district or spinning out the US asset for valuation unlocking.
Macro / Industry Outlook:
- Permitting: West Red Lake and First Mining note that Canadian permitting takes 7–10 years, with recent federal act changes resulting in very few approvals. Morocco is positioned as a superior jurisdiction (2–3 month permitting vs. 20 years elsewhere), driving Aya's strategy.
- Energy/Carbon: McEwen Copper and Regulus emphasize the demand for "green copper" due to decarbonization needs (EVs, renewables). McEwen aims for 100% renewable energy and heat leaching (no tailings) to meet ESG criteria.
- Geopolitics: Aya highlights Morocco's political stability and alignment with Western interests as a low-risk jurisdiction compared to others. Nordics Metals notes the need for European domestic uranium supply due to potential Russian supply cuts, favoring hard rock mining in Sweden/Finland.
- Security: Aya and Starcore address security risks in Mexico, citing local workforce integration and the nature of the product (concentrate vs. doré) as mitigation strategies. Regulus notes the "sacrificial lamb" risk for alum shale uranium vs. hard rock in the Nordics.
Strategic Initiatives:
- American Gold and Silver: Modernizing Galena with mechanized mining (long-hole stoping), new paste fill plant, and upgraded hoisting. Acquired Crescent Mine; connecting levels for secondary egress.
- McEwen Mining: Intends to IPO McEwen Copper in 2027. Developing Los Azules with a "regenerative mine" vision (no tailings, solar-powered, living building). Building mill at Mexico project.
- West Red Lake Gold Mines: Finalizing integrated Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for Madsen and Rowan. Advancing underground development at Madsen 904 complex.
- Regulus Resources: Executing data sharing agreements and land earning agreements with neighbors (Goldfields, Southern Copper, Buenaventura) to facilitate district consolidation for a major buyer.
- Nordics Metals: Transitioning from lithium to uranium. Expanding drill programs in Finland and Sweden (Ryuta, Nordotun, Dublon). Potential co-listing on a US exchange.
- Golconda Gold: Spin-out of Summit Mine (USA) asset as a standalone public entity by end of 2027. Potential share buybacks or dividends if cash flow targets are met.
- First Mining Gold: Securing Indigenous community agreements for Spring Pole. Executing definitive feasibility study and early works engineering in late 2027.
- Starcore International: Utilizing existing San Martin infrastructure for La Tortilla lease. Drilling 4 exploration targets on the main property.
- Aya Gold & Silver: Constructing Boumadine mine (450M capex) starting within 2 years. Massive drilling program (250k meters) to extend Zegounder and define Boumadine resource.
Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:
- Security: Potential drug cartel activity in Sinaloa (Cosla mine) remains a risk, though current local employment mitigates it.
- Permitting Delays: Canadian projects face significant time risks in the EA process; labor shortages for construction in Canada are a bottleneck.
- Financing: McEwen Copper requires ~$4.5B in financing; success of IPO and equity raises is a key risk.
- Commodity Price Volatility: Regulus and Nordics Metals rely on specific market cycles (copper/uranium) for monetization; selling in a downturn would devalue assets.
- Execution: Transitioning mining methods at AGS (Galena) and restarting operations at Golconda's Summit carry execution risks.
- Geopolitics: While Aya cites Morocco as low risk, broader global instability remains a factor for international operations.
Management Tone on the Future:
- Confidence: Extremely high across all speakers regarding their specific assets (e.g., Aya's "20-bagger" call, AGS's "turnaround expert" track record).
- Value Recognition: Strong sentiment that markets currently undervalue advanced assets (West Red Lake, First Mining) and that re-rating is imminent upon project milestones (permits, production start).
- Strategic Discipline: Emphasis on buying "out of favor" assets or advanced projects with clear paths to production (Nordics, Regulus, Golconda) rather than high-risk greenfields.
- Catalyst Focus: Focus is heavily placed on specific near-term catalysts (Q3/Q4 production, PFS completion, 2027 IPO, 2028 construction decision) to drive valuation.
Miscellaneous:
- ESG/Sustainability: McEwen Copper's "regenerative" vision (living building, solar power, no tailings) is a central narrative. Aya highlights Morocco's green mining code and low carbon footprint.
- Local Employment: Heavy emphasis on hiring local workforces (100% local at Cosla, 1% expats at Aya) to mitigate social risk and align with government priorities.
- Insider Ownership: Golconda, McEwen, and Aya highlight high insider/management ownership as a signal of alignment and conviction.
- Technology: Use of AI, airborne geophysics, and mechanized mining (AGS) to de-risk and improve efficiency.
- Company
- DOLLY VARDEN SILVER CORP
- Keywords
- DOLLY VARDEN SILVER CORP