Q3 2026 Wynn Resorts Limited Earnings Conference Call - WYNN RESORTS LTD

Explicit Guidance:

• Macau CapEx (2026): Expected to fall in the $350–$400 million range, driven by piling and early development for new projects.
• Las Vegas OPEX Run Rate: Projected to remain in the $4.4–$4.7 million per day range (excluding gaming tax), dependent on volume and event cadence.
• Capital Return (Macau): Board approved a 2026 interim dividend of $150 million, up from $125 million; intent to maintain this level subject to Board review.
• Capital Return (Wynn Resorts): Cash dividend approved at $0.25 per share (payable Nov 30); $58.1 million in stock buybacks executed in Q3 2026, with continued opportunistic buybacks via price-based grid.
• Marjan Project Equity: Remaining equity requirement estimated at $465–$590 million (40% share), including the "Janoo" project, after a $240 million budget increase.
• Note: No explicit full-year revenue or earnings guidance provided; Q4 specific EBITDA guidance not given.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Las Vegas: Q4 expected to perform strongly driven by F1 (pacing ahead of 2024/2025 in rate/occupancy), NFL season, and robust convention calendar. Group/convention business for 2027 is pacing ahead of 2025 and 2026 levels at this point. High-end consumer demand remains healthy with REVPAR and ADR growth; summer remains the lowest demand quarter.
• Boston: Labor strike concluded with a ratified agreement expected; operations returned to normal. OPEX reductions observed during strike; future OPEX run rate to be assessed post-ratification. Asset viewed as undiminished earnings power despite iGaming threats.
• Macau: Long-term focus on adaptation rather than short-term volatility. Construction started on three new projects: Theater and Events Center (opening 2028) and Enclave Tower (opening early 2029, adding 432 suites to Wynn Palace).
• Wynn Al Marjan Islands (UAE): On track for September 2027 opening. Building handover to operations zones begins early 2027; full operational control by late July 2027. Onboarding/training concentrated in the three months leading to opening.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Las Vegas: Pricing power remains strong due to multiple overlapping demand drivers (Raiders, Sphere, F1, Convention Center). Summer seasonality is structural and unlikely to disappear; growth concentrated in event-driven quarters. Market share remains healthy relative to pre-COVID levels.
• Macau: Complex economy with no single narrative; tax policies and capital controls are factors but not determinative. Long-term demand exists for non-gaming diversification, constrained primarily by limited hotel room inventory (30% of Strip's supply).
• UAE: Demand exceeds supply at Marjan; significant local expat population accustomed to gaming. Conflict resolution scenarios (high, moderate, low intensity) represent different demand mixes rather than existential threats.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Nevada Politics: Governor transition expected to be stable; no anticipated risk of gaming tax increases. State governance viewed as "sane" and empathetic to the industry.
• Macau Economy: Viewed as complex and adaptable, similar to the U.S.; management bets on long-term adaptation rather than straight-line growth.
• U.S. Expansion Landscape: Texas and Georgia identified as potential markets for future development. Concerns regarding iGaming cannibalization in regional markets make new U.S. deployments "thoughtful" and selective.
• Online Gaming: Viewed as a persistent threat to regional earnings power (Boston), requiring regulatory advocacy to prevent "paper cuts" becoming "knife wounds."

Strategic Initiatives:

• Las Vegas: Encore Tower remodel on track for completion in H1 2027. CapEx in LV expected to decline relative to recent years, with selective F&B/nightlife investments in 2027.
• Macau: Capital deployment focused on room expansion (Enclave) and non-gaming attractions (Theater/Events Center) to address room supply constraints.
• UAE (Marjan): Massive construction nearing completion; costs substantially locked in. Focus on database building and marketing to activate multiple source markets (local, regional, global).
• M&A/Development: Land bank in UAE to be utilized for future expansion. Consideration of developing across the street in Las Vegas to leverage existing Wynn assets at lower cost than a freestanding resort.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Geopolitical: Conflict in the Middle East/UAE remains a variable; management monitors escalation/de-escalation but maintains bullish long-term thesis.
• Labor: Boston labor costs and operational continuity post-strike ratification.
• Seasonality: Summer quarters in Las Vegas will likely remain the lowest performance periods due to lack of demand drivers.
• Regulatory: Potential for gaming tax increases or iGaming expansion in non-Nevada jurisdictions (specifically Massachusetts and regional U.S. states).
• Project Execution: Construction delays or supply chain issues could impact Marjan opening timeline (though currently on track).

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: High confidence in Macau's long-term fundamentals and Las Vegas's pricing power; "future remains bright."
• Resilience: Emphasis on adaptability in complex markets (China/UAE) rather than predicting linear growth.
• Cautious but Optimistic: Acknowledges tough comps in Las Vegas and structural seasonality but asserts strong absolute performance.
• Strategic Patience: Focusing on completing Marjan before committing to new U.S. developments; balancing buybacks with CapEx needs.

Miscellaneous:

• New Openings: Cliff House Grill and XS Nightclub (renovated) recently opened; Wynn Golf Club clubhouse added.
• Financial Position: $4 billion liquidity (split $2.5B Macau, $1.5B U.S.); self-funding Macau growth via free cash flow.
• Stock Buybacks: 14% of shares bought back since 2022; management views current stock levels as undervalued.
• Construction Loans: $1.76 billion drawn on Marjan construction loan; cumulative equity contribution ~$1.12 billion.