STIFEL 2026 HEALTHCARE CONFERENCE - EVOLUS INC

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2024 Revenue: Reaffirmed guidance of $330–$337 million, representing 11–13% year-over-year revenue growth.
• FY2024 Profitability: Reaffirmed guidance for Adjusted EBITDA in the low-to-mid single-digit percentage of revenue.
• Long-term Revenue Growth (2028): The 2028 outlook assumes a full portfolio launch across all geographies (Toxin + Fillers), with International expansion (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) for the "Esteem" line expected to complete by 2028.
• Product Timeline:
  • Sculp: Expected launch in Q1 2027.
  • Lip Product: Expected launch in 2028.
  • Hair Rejuvenation: Human data anticipated by end of 2028 prior to full development program.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Toxins (Juveau): Market expected to grow in the upper single-digit range in Q3; company targets >20% market share per existing account and aims to convert clinics to a single-vendor strategy by bundling fillers.
• Fillers (Evalise): Launching two initial formulations with a portfolio of three new products planned over the next four years. Form (versatile) and Sculp (projection/hard gel) are key; Sculp targets 40–50% of the filler market value. Profilo (non-cross-linked HA for skin hydration) positioned as a complementary asset.
• International: Currently 10% of revenue mix; expanding "Esteem" HA line in Europe (launched Q2) and securing rights in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand for 2028 rollout.
• New Categories: Developing a hair rejuvenation product using small molecules for local administration; targeting a 3–4 month treatment cadence to align with injector visit frequency.
• Customer Metrics: Consumer rewards program approaching 2 million users with ~70% repeat rate; 16,000 clinicians to be trained; 3,500+ facilities purchased Evalise in first 5 quarters.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Aesthetics Market: Overall sector described as "very healthy"; toxin market in growth mode, filler market stabilizing/flat in unit volume but up in patient volume (mid-to-high single digits).
• Consumer Trends: Shift toward "natural look" (less volume per treatment post-COVID boom); rising demand from GLP-1 patients experiencing facial volume loss.
• Competitive Positioning: Evalise is the only HA filler with GLP-1 mentioned on its label; company differentiates via "cash-pay" model, medical education, and co-branded media rather than traditional rebate structures alone.
• Market Dynamics: Competitors utilizing bundling; Evelis piloting a growth rebate program (six-month cycle) for high-volume accounts to accelerate portfolio adoption.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Economic Environment: Target demographic (household income $100k+) remains resilient with no signs of slowing demand.
• Regulatory/Lifecycle: Management anticipates a market cycle swing: away from biostimulators back to the "middle" where HAs provide immediate volume and tissue correction.
• GLP-1 Trend: Identified as a major "tailwind" for the category, specifically driving demand for HA fillers to replace volume loss.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Portfolio Expansion: Rolling out Sculp (flagship HA for projection) in Q1 2027, followed by Lip product in 2028 to complete the HA line.
• Commercial Platform Leverage: Utilizing existing sales, medical education, and digital loyalty platforms for new launches (e.g., Sculpt, Lip) to achieve operating leverage without rebuilding core capabilities.
• Co-Branded Media: Expanding local TV and billboard advertising with clinics, specifically targeting GLP-1 consumers via Evalise label differentiation.
• International Expansion: Accelerating "Esteem" line adoption in Europe and securing North American/Australasian rights for 2028.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• New Product Ramp: Sculp launch in Q1 2027 requires time to build clinician confidence and ramp up, though early European data suggests rapid adoption.
• Pipeline Timing: Hair rejuvenation and other BD opportunities depend on securing the "right deal structure" and achieving human data by end-2028; no guaranteed development until data is confirmed.
• Competitive Bundling: Clinics currently face "punitive" pricing if they increase Juveau share without moving HA business; success depends on Evelis overcoming this via full portfolio bundling.
• GLP-1 Market Uncertainty: While a tailwind, the long-term volume impact depends on the specific nature of volume loss in GLP-1 patients.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: High confidence in the "healthy" market state and the "strong" foundation of the platform.
• Key Narrative: Emphasis on operating leverage (4 quarters of EBITDA profitability) and the strategic advantage of a cash-pay, full-pipeline model compared to competitors.
• Differentiation: Management expresses strong belief that the "moat" is the commercial platform (education, loyalty, co-branding) combined with high-quality, differentiated products (Phase III validated Juveau, unique HA chemistry).
• Momentum: View Q3 and Q4 as a continuation of strong momentum, with Q4 being the "biggest quarter seasonally."

Miscellaneous:

• 11-11 Event: "Juveau 11's Day" (Nov 11) cited as a major annual driver with hundreds of practices participating; significant marketing investment allocated to this event.
• Product Chemistry: "Profilo" utilizes non-traditional cross-linking (hydrogen bonds) for hydration rather than structural correction, distinguishing it from the "Esteem" line.
• Bio-stimulators: Management remains interested in the space but views current chemistries as 25 years old; seeking opportunities to improve on existing tech rather than immediate entry.