Supernus Pharmaceuticals 3Q 2026 Financial and Business Update Conference Call - SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS INC

Explicit Guidance:

• FY2026 Revenue (Stand-alone): Raised to a range of $875 million to $900 million, up from a previous range of $860 million to $890 million.
• FY2026 Non-GAAP Operating Earnings (Stand-alone): Raised to a range of $160 million to $180 million, up from a previous range of $150 million to $180 million.
• FY2027 Guidance: No specific financial guidance provided for 2027 today; management expects to issue combined full-year 2027 guidance in February 2027 alongside Q4 and full-year 2026 results.
• Merger Conditionality: All current stand-alone guidance is superseded upon the expected closing of the merger with Indivior on November 2, 2026.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Commercial Portfolio: Key growth products (Calvry, Zerzube, Onetco, Gokabri, recovery, Anaco) are projected to continue growing well into the 2030s post-merger.
• Calvry (ADHD): Expected to maintain momentum with strong growth in adult prescriptions (25% Q3 YoY) and pediatric prescriptions (16% Q3 YoY); new-to-brand prescriptions up 23% in Q3, indicating sustained top-line expansion.
• Zerzube: Demand remains healthy with 87% repeat prescribers and 43,000+ patients treated; future growth expected to be driven by DTC campaign metrics and expansion into OBGYN spaces.
• Anaco: Supply constraints resolved; processing of enrollment forms to shipments returned to "normal timing" with improved conversion rates, expected to support demand growth beyond the ~400 forms per quarter run rate.
• R&D Pipeline:
  • SPN443: Phase 1 single/multiple ascending dose studies in adult healthy volunteers expected to start by end of 2026.
  • SPN820 (MDD) & SPN817 (Focal Seizures): Phase IIb studies ongoing; SPN817 data readout expected in 2028 (specific quarter TBD based on recruitment rates).
• Portfolio Expansion: Combined entity will possess 11 differentiated medicines across psychiatry, neurology, and addiction, providing capacity to advance novel pipeline assets.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Market Trends: ADHD market growing at 10%+ in prescriptions; Zerzube sales grew 53% (US) and 43% in written prescriptions YoY, indicating successful market share capture in underserved neurology communities.
• Pricing & Competition: Calvry holds a unique market position with 5 years of experience and 1% market share; management notes the market remains resilient despite competition.
• Supply Chain: Supply issues for Anaco resolved; improved form-to-shipment conversion expected to enhance patient access and satisfaction, potentially increasing new form submissions above current run rates.
• Regulatory Wins: FDA recognized 7 years of orphan drug exclusivity for Gonadco (Anaco); supplemental NDA for second-source supply approved for mid-year 2027.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Economic Context: Management emphasizes "continued momentum" and "resilient" market dynamics in CNS and addiction sectors, implying tolerance for current macro headwinds.
• Regulatory: Continued focus on "targeted therapies" for underserved communities (e.g., Parkinson's motor fluctuations) validates industry demand for specialized treatments.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Merger with Indivior (Endivio): Expected to close November 2, 2026; shareholders approved October 15.
• Integration: Full-scale integration planning underway, targeting $125 million in annual cost synergies; confidence expressed in hitting this target based on prior success with SAGE acquisition ($200M+ synergies realized).
• Capital Allocation: Combined company to utilize financial capacity for business development, pipeline advancement, and growth of existing commercial portfolio.
• M&A Strategy: "Parallel track" priority; business development team to continue identifying partnership and acquisition targets post-closing, though immediate focus is integration.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Merger Execution: Outlook and financial guidance are contingent on the successful closing of the merger; stand-alone guidance becomes obsolete post-November 2.
• Clinical Trial Timelines: SPN817 (epilepsy) data readout is currently estimated for 2028 but subject to recruitment rates; enrollment speed is a key variable.
• Demand Volatility: While current demand is strong, reliance on new patient enrollment and prescriber adoption requires continued marketing spend (DTC) and provider education.
• Restrictions on Discussion: Management limited in discussing combined company details during the pending merger phase, creating a short-term informational gap for investors.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence Level: High confidence in near-term execution; use of phrases like "extremely excited," "position of strength," and "exciting new chapter."
• Sentiment: Optimistic regarding the "transformative" nature of the merger and the "significant earnings and cash flow potential" of the combined entity.
• Guidance Change: Proactive upward revision of FY2026 stand-alone guidance indicates strong belief in current momentum.
• Hedges: Standard forward-looking statement warnings regarding SEC filings and risk factors; specific caveats on clinical trial timing and merger closing conditions.

Miscellaneous:

• Cash Position: Approximately $359 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of September 30, 2026.
• Timeline: Q&A focused on stand-alone results; combined outlook to be detailed in February 2027.
• Geography: Specific growth mentioned for US markets (Zerzube sales) and general global demand for Anaco.