Third Quarter 2026 Operating and Financial Results Conference Call - ERO COPPER CORP

Explicit Guidance:

• Full-Year 2026 Copper Production: Expectation to achieve full-year production guidance; Q4 expected to be the "strongest operating quarter of the year" due to higher mine/process grades from deeper benches at Caraíba and contributions from the Pilar underground mine.
• Full-Year 2026 Gold Production (Javachina): Guidance for total gold output between 75,000 and 80,000 ounces, a record for the company. This includes 75,000–80,000 ounces expected from in-process and dried concentrate material to be sold over the next eight weeks (covering late Q3 and Q4).
• 2026 Q4 Gold Concentrate Sales: Management indicated 15,000 ounces of gold from concentrate sales in Q4 based on assayed and available inventory (including >6,000 oz invoiced in October), with the ability to add to this as more material dries.
• Full-Year 2026 Copper C1 Cash Costs: Guidance adjusted to reflect a potential $0.10 per pound impact on reported cash costs due to inflationary pressures and a stronger BRL (functional currency).
• 2026 Net Debt Leverage: Target net debt leverage ratio of 0.5 times (achieved in Q3); committed to accelerating deleveraging and repaying the revolving credit facility by Q4 2026.
• 2027 Production Volume Targets:
  • Tucumã: Expect to exit 2026 and operate in 2027 at 4 million tons per annum (TPA) throughput, driven by the commissioning of three new filters.
  • Javachina: Q4 normalized performance is estimated at 20,000 to 25,000 tons per month from the mine and plant, with a normalized value around 19,000 tons/month, serving as a better baseline for 2027 potential than the full-year 2026 average.
• CAPEX (Kariba Shaft Sinking): Remaining investment of approximately $70 million on a total $370 million project; significant spending expected in Q4 2026 with the balance extending into 2027.
• Corporate G&A Run Rate: SAP implementation costs (~$4M quarterly) expected to run for 2–3 quarters through Q2 2027, returning to typical historical run rates thereafter.

Business-Segment Outlook:

• Caraíba: Expected to see production increases in Q4 and Q1 2027 driven by higher grades from lower benches at Serra do Mar; grades expected to transition into 2027, though some Q4 material may roll into Q1 2027.
• Tucumã: C1 cash costs expected to decline sequentially in Q4 due to increased throughput and metallurgical recoveries; three new filters commissioned prior to year-end to support 2027 capacity.
• Javachina: Operational improvements expected in Q4 as access to key high-grade stopes (delayed in Q3) transitions into production; concentrate volumes expected to remain robust through the next couple of quarters in 2027.
• Furnas Project (Growth): Completed Phase 3 drill program (45,000 meters) in August 2026, two years ahead of schedule; Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) expected to be published in 2027 (targeting completion by September 2027 per the earn-in agreement); Feasibility Study and Final Investment Decision (FID) discussions to occur in 2027 after PFS completion.
• Operational Efficiency: "One Arrow" initiative and foreign exchange hedging strategy expected to continue offsetting inflationary pressures and maintaining strong cash operating margins throughout 2027.

Market and Competitive Outlook:

• Copper Market: Management views the underlying value of high-quality copper production as clear despite market volatility and questions regarding AI infrastructure spending pace; prioritizes organic growth projects to leverage current cash flow.
• Gold Market: Current high gold prices support the strategy of selling historic concentrates at sub-$750/oz all-in sustaining costs, prioritizing cash generation over holding inventory.
• Capacity Expansion: Expect to enter a "few years" period of lower capital intensity post-2026 (tail end of intensive phase), setting the stage for the next growth asset (Furnas) and brownfield developments.
• Shareholder Returns: Active discussions with the Board regarding a shareholder return framework; expectation is to repay the revolver in Q4 2026, at which point the framework will be announced.

Macro / Industry Outlook:

• Foreign Exchange (BRL):
  • Q4 2026 hedge floor established at 5.54 BRL/USD and ceiling at 6.42 BRL/USD; management expects to participate in BRL weakness up to the ceiling.
  • 2027 hedging book actively being built to leverage the recent weakening of the Real following the election; focus on managing future OPEX and CAPEX exposure.
• Inflation & Costs: Anticipated inflationary pressures and elevated diesel prices impacting operational costs; management expects these to be mitigated by the hedging program and cost-saving initiatives.
• Regulatory/Geopolitical:
  • Acknowledged potential $0.10/lb cost impact from the US-Iran conflict and resulting inflation.
  • Brazil election outcome viewed as a positive catalyst for BRL weakness, aiding cash margins.
  • Furnas project requires parallel advancement of permitting processes in Brazil alongside engineering work.

Strategic Initiatives:

• Deleveraging: 97 cents of every available dollar applied to debt reduction in 2026; net debt reduced by ~$100M in Q3; total revolver repayment targeted for Q4 2026.
• Furnas Milestones: Continued technical work streams to support PFS in 2027; drilling results demonstrating high-grade continuity to be released prior to year-end 2026.
• Concentrate Program (Javachina): Successful scaling of drying capacity (mobile filter press and inducer dryer) allows for record gold recovery from historic stockpiles; ongoing extraction and sale of material.
• SAP Implementation: Cloud-based ERP migration expected to conclude by Q2 2027, after which costs will stabilize at historical run rates.
• Brownfield Development: Focus on "One Arrow" program and other organic growth drivers identified at the Capital Markets Day to optimize operations and extend mine life.

Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:

• Cost Inflation: Potential for continued inflationary pressure and diesel price volatility to impact C1 cash costs if not fully offset by hedging.
• FX Volatility: While hedges protect Q4 2026, future BRL fluctuations outside the hedge book (floor/ceiling) could impact margins.
• Operational Delays: Mining operations at Javachina face ongoing challenges accessing high-grade stopes; development progress is critical to hitting Q4 targets.
• Regulatory Permitting: Furnas project timeline depends on successful completion of permitting processes, which run parallel to engineering work.
• Reserve/Resource Uncertainty: Javachina's future concentrate sales beyond Q4 2026 remain difficult to estimate due to underwater inventory and lack of representative samples until drying.
• Technical Report Updates: Planned release of updated technical reports for Tucumã (reserves/resources) before year-end; outcomes could influence future production plans.

Management Tone on the Future:

• Confidence: High confidence in the "tangible organic growth pipeline," "strong free cash flow generation," and the ability to achieve full-year production guidance despite operational headwinds.
• Strategic Focus: Emphasis on "balance sheet strength" and "cash generation" as the primary enablers for future growth (Furnas) and shareholder returns.
• Hedges/Restraint: Prudent approach to shareholder returns (waiting for revolver payoff) and cautious but optimistic outlook for 2027 operations (avoiding over-promising on multi-year Javachina volumes).
• Competitive Positioning: Belief that the company is well-positioned relative to peers due to the completion of a multi-year capital-intensive phase and a strong balance sheet.

Miscellaneous:

• Capital Markets Day 2027 Guidance: Q4 2026 performance is considered a better proxy for 2027 production potential than a simple extrapolation of the first nine months of 2026.
• Upcoming Milestones: PFS for Furnas to be published in 2027; updated Technical Report for Tucumã to be released before year-end 2026.
• Investor Relations: Team available for follow-up discussions; presence planned at roadshows in Toronto, Boston, and Montreal.