Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call and Webcast - NEW FOUND GOLD CORP
Explicit Guidance:
- Financial Metrics: No specific numerical guidance for FY2026 full-year revenue, earnings, cash costs, or AISC provided; management notes that "guidance in due course" will be released following the current budget process.
- Production: No specific ounce production guidance for FY2026 or FY2027 provided; Q3 2026 production was 4,863 oz (10,670 oz YTD).
- Capex/Opex: No specific full-year capex or opex guidance issued; however, Q3 operating costs were elevated due to specific one-time factors (stripping, grade, drilling) with a stated expectation to "bring costs down" in future quarters to reach PEA metrics.
Business-Segment Outlook:
- Hammerdown Mine: Priority is steady-state production through late 2026/2027; crusher/sorter expected to reach substantial completion in Q3 2026 with ramp-up through H1 2027 to reduce crushing costs and improve mill feed grade.
- Pine Cove Mill: Conversion from flotation/Merrill-Crowe to gravity carbon leach on schedule for Q4 2027 completion; expected to lift recovery rates from 87% to 92%; separate permit application to expand throughput to 1,400 tpd anticipated post-environmental release.
- Queensway Phase 1: Target to deliver first mineralized material to the Pine Cove mill in Q4 2027; mining expected to start in Q3 2027; contractor mobilization planned for Q1 2027.
- Queensway Phase 2 & 3: Updated mine plan moves underground mining (Dropkick zone) up from Phase 3 to Phase 2, starting in 2030; Phase 1 designed to fund Phase 2, which funds Phase 3.
- Resources: Updated Hammerdown resource estimate expected in Q4 2027 following infill drilling completion; Queensway measured and indicated resources grew 38% to 1.92M oz in 2026; further updated MRE expected later in 2027 to support Feasibility Study.
Market and Competitive Outlook:
- Production Profile: Queensway PEA assumes a 15-year mine life producing 1.744M oz total, averaging 116k oz/year and peaking at ~190k oz/year in 2032.
- Cost Efficiency: Life of Mine (LOM) costs estimated at $985/oz cash costs and $1,375/oz AISC (based on 2026 PEA assumptions of $3,600/oz gold).
- Financial Returns: Revised 2026 PEA indicates an after-tax NPV (5%) of $1.73B and IRR of 126% at $3,600/oz; upside case at $4,100/oz yields $2.2B NPV and 164% IRR.
- Growth Strategy: Positioning as a "mid-tier gold producer" via a hub-and-scope model where Pine Cove serves both Hammerdown and Queensway.
Macro / Industry Outlook:
- Valuation Assumptions: The revised 2026 PEA base case utilizes a $3,600/oz gold price; sensitivity analysis shows significant NPV/IRR uplift at $4,100/oz.
- Jurisdiction: Management reiterates strong confidence in Newfoundland and Labrador as a "top mining jurisdiction" with favorable permitting timelines.
- Regulatory: Permitting timeline for Queensway Phase 1 is critical; Environmental Preview Report (EPR) decision expected late 2026 or early 2027, with provincial/federal permits and surface leases targeted for mid-2027.
Strategic Initiatives:
- Queensway Technical Report: Filing of the NI 43-101 technical report supporting the revised PEA and updated MRE expected by early December 2026.
- Infrastructure: Commencement of commercial production at Hammerdown in September 2026 has accelerated Queensway advancement by 2–3 years compared to a standalone mill scenario.
- Exploration: Continued active drilling program at Queensway (4 rigs active at Q3 end) focused on converting inferred resources to indicated in Phase 2 pits and de-risking the Dropkick zone; regional targets to be pursued in the new year.
- Capital Structure: $70M drawn of $105M EdgePoint facility at 8.75% fixed rate; $35M second tranche available until May 15, 2027. Phase 1 fully funded with $150M initial capital.
Risks and Headwinds to Outlook:
- Operational Costs: Current AISC ($3,279/oz) exceeds PEA targets due to high strip ratio (12.4:1 vs 9.6:1 PEA), lower grade (11% below plan), infill drilling costs, fuel surcharges, and water treatment; management is assessing if these costs will persist or be one-off.
- Grade Reconciliation: Unexpected "goodbye cut" trench in 1990s mining resulted in higher grade material not materializing; though grade reconciliation to model remains excellent (<5%).
- Permitting Delays: Queensway schedule depends on EPR decision (late 2026/early 2027) and subsequent provincial/federal permitting; delays could push first production beyond Q4 2027.
- Resource Uncertainty: Inferred resources remain speculative and cannot be categorized as reserves without demonstrated economic viability.
- Weather/Seasonality: Overburden stripping in Rambouillion pit pulled forward to Q3 2026 to avoid winter conditions, which increased current costs.
Management Tone on the Future:
- Confidence: High confidence in the "solid platform" to become Canada's next mid-tier gold producer; Keith Boyle describes the jurisdiction as the "best... in large part thanks to the people."
- Strategic Pivot: Tone reflects a transition from "development" to "commercial producer," with clear focus on cost reduction and permitting execution.
- Guidance Caution: Management exercised caution regarding specific future guidance, deferring to the budget process but confirming the "stepped up" production and cost trajectory.
Miscellaneous:
- Dividends/Buybacks: No mention of current plans for dividends or share buybacks.
- M&A: No mention of upcoming M&A; focus remains on organic growth via Queensway and Hammerdown optimization.
- ESG: Highlighted commitment to local hiring (90% of workforce from province, 60% from central Newfoundland) and community engagement.
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