CF Industries — Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

Financial Performance:

• Q3 2026 Net Sales were $1,860 million, up from $1,659 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Net Earnings attributable to common stockholders were $436 million, compared to $353 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Net Earnings per diluted share were $2.87, compared to $2.19 in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $833 million, up from $667 million in Q3 2025.
• Q3 2026 Gross Margin was $720 million (38.7% of net sales), compared to $632 million (38.1%) in Q3 2025.
• Nine months 2026 Net Sales were $6,068 million, up from $5,212 million in the same period 2025.
• Nine months 2026 Net Earnings attributable to common stockholders were $1,778 million, up from $1,051 million in 2025.
• Nine months 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $3,008 million, up from $2,072 million in 2025.
• Nine months 2026 LTM Adjusted EBITDA was $3.8 billion.
• Nine months 2026 LTM Cash from Operations was $3.1 billion.
• Nine months 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow was $2.0 billion.
• Nine months 2026 LTM Free Cash Flow to Adjusted EBITDA conversion was 53% (61% excluding $306 million in deposits related to a US-Canada transfer pricing matter).
• Nine months 2026 LTM Capital Returned to Shareholders was $1.3 billion.
• Nine months 2026 Capital Expenditures were $776 million.
• Nine months 2026 LTM Net Earnings were $2.2 billion.
• Natural gas costs in cost of sales per MMBtu were $2.87 in Q3 2026, down from $2.96 in Q3 2025.
• Natural gas costs in cost of sales per MMBtu were $3.76 for nine months 2026, up from $3.35 for nine months 2025.

Guidance and Future Outlook:

• CF 2026 Outlook includes expected gross ammonia production of ~9.5 million tons.
• Mid-cycle EBITDA is expected to be ~$2.9 billion.
• Long-term Outlook targets ~$3.3 billion mid-cycle EBITDA by 2030.
• Global nitrogen supply-demand balance is expected to remain constructive with European curtailments accelerating and geopolitical disruptions constraining supply.
• Blue Point Complex construction has commenced with a total project cost of ~$3.7 billion; ammonia production is expected to commence in 2029.
• Yazoo City Complex is expected to resume operations in the first half of 2027.
• Expected CF-funded capital expenditures for 2026 are $950 million ($400 million related to Blue Point).
• Mid-cycle EBITDA growth is driven by strategic initiatives including monetizing decarbonization (45Q tax credits, low-carbon price premium) and margin enhancement projects.

Business Segments and Product Lines:

• Available ammonia capacity utilization was 97% in Q3 2026 (12-month rolling average).
• CF's 10% greater capacity utilization compared to North American peers yields an additional ~1 million tons of ammonia annually.
• The 12-month rolling average recordable incident rate was 0.10 per 200,000 work hours.
• Blue Point One joint venture involves contributions of ~$391 million from JERA and Mitsui and Capex funded by them of ~$196 million.
• CF holds a 40% interest in Blue Point One capacity.
• 2022-2025 average nitrogen product sales price relationships are used for sensitivity analysis.

Market and Competitive Landscape:

• Global urea seaborne exports are expected to be down ~5 million metric tons year-over-year.
• Supply is disrupted from the Middle East and Russia.
• High energy costs are driving European nitrogen curtailments.
• 35% of Trinidad ammonia capacity is permanently shut down.
• Indian demand remains strong with expected imports of ~10-11 MMT in Q1-Q3 2026.
• Brazil imports are below average but buying is expected to accelerate (~7 MMT in Q1-Q3 2026).
• North American demand is supported by strong UAN fill and Fall ammonia programs.
• Global grains stock-to-use remain below historical averages.
• European production costs are constrained by high energy prices, with TTF natural gas prices projected to average $16.88/MMBtu in Q1 2027 and $18.84/MMBtu in Q2 2027.
• Estimated European ammonia costs are projected at $536/MT in Q1 2027, $741/MT in Q2 2027, and $815/MT in Q3 2027.

Risks and Challenges:

• Risks include the ability to complete Blue Point Complex projects on schedule and on budget.
• Capital expenditure needs for the Blue Point joint venture may exceed current estimates.
• The cyclical nature of the business and global supply/demand impacts on selling prices.
• Global commodity nature of nitrogen products and intense global competition.
• Potential impact of tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations.
• Volatility of natural gas prices in North America and globally.
• Weather conditions and adverse weather events.
• Seasonality of the fertilizer business.
• Risks associated with cybersecurity, terrorism, and international operations.
• Risks related to environmental, health, and safety laws and regulations.
• Risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of risk management activities.
• Potential liabilities related to environmental and climate change regulations.
• Risks associated with the development and growth of the low-carbon ammonia market.

Management Commentary and Tone:

• Management highlighted "strong execution and constructive nitrogen fundamentals" driving robust financial results.
• Management noted that "outstanding safety performance drives industry leading production capacity utilization."
• Management emphasized a "proven formula for compounding shareholder value" with a track record of converting EBITDA into free cash flow at an average of ~60%.
• Management stated that "global supply-demand fundamentals remain constructive."
• Management indicated that "high energy costs continue to constrain European production."

Analyst Questions and Answers:

• No specific analyst questions and answers were included in the provided text.

Other Key Points:

• Share repurchase authorization runs through 2029, with $1.3 billion remaining in the current $2 billion authorization as of September 30, 2026.
• Since 2010, CF has increased production capacity by 36% and decreased share count by 58%.
• A $170 million gain from a litigation settlement was included in nine months 2026 Adjusted EBITDA.
• A $306 million deposit related to a US-Canada transfer pricing matter was paid in Q3 2026 and will be applied against tax and interest due upon resolution.
• A $491 million payment related to a US-Canada transfer pricing dispute was made in 2022.
• The Blue Point One joint venture was formed on April 8, 2025.
• CF Industries is the #1 Materials Company based on 5-year average free cash flow conversion.
• A $50/ton movement in urea realized price implies an ~$800 million change in Adjusted EBITDA on an annual basis.