2016 CA Summit - Lunch - The Autonomous Future

California's Autonomy and Innovation Culture:

• The state operates largely autonomously from federal decisions, leveraging a decades-long history of innovation rather than recent "disruption."
• Key historical innovations cited include UCLA's ARPANET, Lockheed's SR-71 and U-2 aircraft (with U-20s still flying), and the evolution of Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Disney, and Industrial Light and Magic.
• Current innovation sectors span aerospace, technology, entertainment, agriculture, and recreational cannabis (via Prop 64).

Timothy Byrd, Jr. (Lyft) – The Third Transportation Revolution:

• Economic Inefficiency of Car Ownership:
  • The U.S. has over 250 million vehicles, which are parked and idle 96% of the time (240 million cars at any given moment).
  • In 2011, there were an estimated 700 million parking spaces in the U.S., covering 6,000 square miles (larger than Connecticut).
  • Americans spend over $2 trillion annually on car ownership; the average family spends $9,000/year, the second-largest household expense after housing.
  • 80% of car seats remain vacant at all times due to single-occupancy driving.
• Lyft's Strategy and Data:
  • 90% of early Lyft rides in San Francisco and Los Angeles could be shared by travelers on the same route.
  • Lyft carpooling (LiftLine) offers price reductions of up to 50% while reducing congestion.
  • Licensing trends show a decline in young drivers: 92% of 20–24-year-olds had licenses in 1983 vs. 77% in 2014; 16-year-old licensing dropped from 46% to 24% in the same period.
  • Millennials are 30% less likely to buy cars than previous generations.
• Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Timeline and Partnership:
  • General Motors and Lyft announced a strategic partnership to launch an on-demand network of autonomous vehicles.
  • Target: Within five years, a fully autonomous fleet will provide the majority of Lyft rides.
  • By 2025, the vision is for private car ownership to "all but end" in major U.S. cities.
• Business Model Evolution:
  • Transitioning to a "Mobility as a Service" (MaaS) subscription model (e.g., $29/month for unlimited Lyft Line rides).
  • Subsidized programs launched in Centennial, Colorado, and Sacramento to solve "first-mile/last-mile" transit connections.
• Urban Reimagining:
  • Reducing the need for parking infrastructure will free up space for housing, businesses, and green parks (e.g., High Line in NY, Hayes Valley in SF).
  • Byrd acknowledges potential job losses in car manufacturing, dealerships, and insurance, noting that infrastructure changes will create new jobs, though specific long-term economic impacts remain undefined.

Bruce Upbin (Hyperloop One) – High-Speed Transportation Paradigm:

• Technology Overview:
  • Hyperloop involves levitating pods in ultra-low-pressure steel tubes propelled by electric motors at airline speeds (200–400 mph).
  • Energy consumption is equivalent to high-speed rail but cheaper, as propulsion is required only for the first two miles; pods glide for hundreds of miles.
  • System is weather-proof, sealed, and eliminates 90% of surface transit accidents caused by at-grade crossings.
• Deployment and Costs:
  • Commercial cargo operations targeted for Q1 2020; passenger systems for 2021.
  • Infrastructure cost (excluding civil engineering) estimated at $11–19 million per mile/kilometer.
  • Business model relies on partnerships with government entities, private equity, or pension funds for infrastructure financing.
• Specific Projects:
  • Port of LA/Long Beach: A feasibility study is underway with AECOM to use Hyperloop for drayage, potentially moving containers to inland hubs like Ontario to reduce 710 freeway congestion and pollution.
  • International Expansion: Agreements and proposals exist for cargo in Dubai (DP World), Russia (Moscow commuter and Far East cargo), and routes in the UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Finland.
• Comparison to Existing Modes:
  • Replaces a 3-4 hour drive or 1.5-hour train with a 20-minute Hyperloop trip at bus-ticket prices.
  • Offers point-to-point travel with on-demand departures, eliminating friction points associated with airports and train stations.

Dave Gallagher (JPL) – Space Exploration and Innovation:

• JPL Identity and Structure:
  • NASA's Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) operated by Caltech; employs 5,500 people with a budget of nearly $2 billion annually.
  • Culture defined by solving problems "no one has done before," emphasizing imagination, risk-taking, and interdisciplinary collaboration between science and engineering.
• Key Mission Achievements:
  • Mars Rovers: Successfully landed Spirit and Opportunity (2004) using airbags; landed Curiosity (2012) using the "seven minutes of terror" Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) sequence involving supersonic parachutes and a sky crane.
  • Future Mars Plans: 2020 mission includes caching samples in hermetically sealed devices for future retrieval; development of a small helicopter scout for Mars 2020 or later.
  • Hubble Telescope: Solved spherical aberration in 1990 by designing "contact lenses" (corrective optics) installed by astronauts in 1993, leading to the Hubble Deep Field images revealing millions of galaxies.
• Exoplanet Discovery:
  • The Kepler mission utilized a low-cost strategy (small telescope + supercomputers) to discover almost 4,000 confirmed exoplanets via the transit method.
  • Visualizations created by JPL artists depict exoplanets like Kepler 186 F (red planet) and Kepler 16b (Tatooine-like planet orbiting two stars).
• Future Exploration:
  • Focus on searching for life on exoplanets and exploring the solar system (e.g., subsurface vehicles for Europa's ice).
  • Emphasis on building tools to answer the fundamental question of whether humans are alone in the universe.