Conference Presentation
2016 CA Summit - Lunch - The Autonomous Future
- California is projected to maintain political autonomy from the federal government and lead the trend toward recreational cannabis legalization following a potential Prop 64 passage.
- The integration of autonomous vehicles, ride-sharing, and hyperloop technology is expected to redefine city development by reducing personal car ownership and freeing parking spaces for housing and green areas.
- Lyft predicts private car ownership in major US cities will effectively end by 2025, coinciding with a shift where a fully autonomous fleet provides the majority of rides within five years.
- Demographic data indicates a continued decline in driver's license possession, with the 20-24 age group dropping from 77% in 2014 and 16-year-olds falling from 46% in 1983 to 24% currently.
- Future mobility models will likely transition to pay-as-you-go or subscription services, such as a proposed $29 monthly unlimited Lyft Line pass, making autonomous rides cheaper than current options.
- Lyft plans to address first and last-mile transit challenges through partnerships in locations like Centennial, Colorado, and Sacramento, while the broader transportation market anticipates tremendous growth.
- The transition to autonomous networks is expected to generate negative economic impacts for car makers, dealers, insurance providers, and cities reliant on parking meter revenue, though the net effect on displaced workers remains uncertain.
- Bruce Upman notes that transportation paradigms typically emerge every 80 years, marking the end of the nearly 100-year era of the current automotive model.
- Hyperloop One intends to unveil new passenger designs in a few weeks, with cargo systems scheduled for the first quarter of next year and passenger systems for 2020 or 2021.
- Hyperloop One is currently avoiding the San Francisco to Los Angeles route due to political complexities with the California High-Speed Rail Project but is conducting a feasibility study with AECOM for a port system at Los Angeles and Long Beach, with results expected in less than a month.
- Hyperloop infrastructure costs are estimated between $11 million and $19 million per mile or kilometer excluding station and civil engineering, with funding expected to come from government entities or private equity rather than Hyperloop One itself.
- The hyperloop system is designed to offer inherent safety improvements over surface transit by eliminating accidents caused by at-grade crossings, driver error, and weather, while operating on a flexible schedule with departures every minute.
- JPL aims to return to Mars in 2020 to cache samples and is evaluating the inclusion of a small helicopter scout that has already been built and tested.
- JPL identified nearly 4,000 exoplanets using a low-cost strategy involving supercomputers and statistics instead of a multi-billion dollar telescope, a method reflecting a culture built to handle project uncertainty.