2024: the year of elections

Global Election Landscape and Democratic Trends

• 2024 is characterized as a "year of elections" with over half the world's population voting in consequential polls across nearly every region.
• A primary backdrop for these elections is "democratic backsliding," where established democracies (including the U.S., Turkey, India, Hungary, Poland, and others) are trending toward illiberalism.
• Drivers of this trend include economic difficulties exacerbated by the pandemic, which has eroded public confidence in establishment governments' ability to deliver prosperity.
• Richard Haass notes that when the public feels "less well off" and lacks confidence in future improvement, populists and "outsiders" gain momentum over incumbents.
• Timothy Garten-Ash confirms that this trend has already materialized in Europe, citing hard-right, nationalist victories or surges in the Netherlands, Italy, and France.

European Political Shifts and the EU's Future

• Europe is facing nine national elections and significant regional contests, alongside European Parliament elections in June, with the common theme being the rise of migration-focused populist parties.
• The most encouraging counter-trend in 2023 was the defeat of the populist party in Poland, achieved by a well-organized opposition led by Donald Tusk with a 74% voter turnout.
• Hungary's Viktor Orbán is identified as the effective leader of an intra-EU opposition bloc that resists integration, favors sovereignty, maintains a soft line on Putin, and opposes LGBTQ+ rights.
• A stronger populist bloc in the European Parliament could block necessary reforms, specifically the move toward "qualified majority voting" required for future EU enlargement into Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.
• Germany's European Parliament elections are significant, with the AfD polling at unprecedented levels in both West and East German provinces.

The U.S. Election as the Decisive Global Event

• Haass asserts that the November 2024 U.S. election "dwarfs everything else" globally due to the outsized role of the U.S. and the unprecedented policy divergence between candidates.
• The fundamental difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is defined as "alliance-first" (internationalist) versus "America First" (isolationist/unilateralist).
• Haass expresses primary concern that a shift toward isolationism would allow destructive forces, from nation-states to non-state actors, to gain the upper hand globally.
• Garten-Ash emphasizes that the U.S. election is the single most important event for Europe, framing the continent's debate around the dual threat of Russian aggression and potential U.S. withdrawal.
• Garten-Ash warns that a Trump administration would likely seek a deal with Putin involving "dramatically reducing American military support for Ukraine," which he terms a "catastrophe" for European security.
• The credibility of NATO's Article 5 guarantee is cited as a major vulnerability if the U.S. retreats from its role, as Europe cannot achieve "strategic autonomy" in defense spending and industrial capacity within a single year.

Implications for the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• The 2024 Russian presidential election is viewed as a foregone conclusion, with President Putin expected to win and use military offensives (bombardment and eastern advances) to deliver symbolic victories before the March vote.
• Ukraine's scheduled 2024 elections are unlikely to occur due to martial law, creating a tension between the need for unity during wartime and the necessity of democratic processes.
• Both experts predict 2024 will be an "indecisive year" for the war, with no fundamental shifts on the battlefield or in diplomatic prospects regardless of political changes in Moscow or Kyiv.
• Haass suggests that 2025 holds the potential for a diplomatic or negotiated outcome, contingent on whether Western (particularly U.S.) support for Ukraine remains robust.
• Garten-Ash notes that Putin is "waiting for Trump," with military buildups in 2024 potentially determining the winner in 2025 or 2026.

Geopolitical Ramifications for Taiwan and the UK

• Regarding Taiwan, Haass argues the 2024 U.S. election is more consequential than Taiwan's own politics; a Trump presidency could introduce uncertainty regarding U.S. geopolitical commitment to defense.
• Trump's approach to China is expected to be economically confrontational (e.g., across-the-board tariffs) but geopolitically ambiguous regarding Taiwan, whereas Biden has clarified commitment despite a lack of sufficient backing.
• The U.S. military industrial base is described as too small for a three-theater war (Middle East, Europe, Indo-Pacific), operating at roughly half the Cold War average GDP percentage, creating a strategic vulnerability.
• In the UK, the consensus is that the Conservative Party will lose the next election, potentially resulting in a Labour majority or coalition.
• UK-EU relations under a new Labour government could see either "hyper-gradualism" (small steps) or a "gradualist reset" covering trade, defense, and security, heavily influenced by the U.S. election outcome.