Timothy Garton Ash
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- Goldman Sachs26 min
2024: the year of elections
Richard Haass, Timothy Garton Ash, Allison Nathan
Richard Haass and Timothy Garten-Ash analyze 2024 as a pivotal global year marked by democratic backsliding and a surge of right-wing populism across Europe and the United States. They argue that the U.S. presidential election serves as the decisive geopolitical event, where the policy divergence between an alliance-first Biden and an isolationist Trump will fundamentally shape the security architecture of NATO and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These shifts carry profound implications for European integration, Taiwan's defense, and the United Kingdom's future relations with the EU, as Western uncertainty may embolden adversaries like Putin and undermine the credibility of international commitments.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Europe at a Crossroads
Allison Nathan, Jari Stehn, Otmar Issing, Romano Prodi, Timothy Garton Ash
Over the last 18 months, the European Union has executed a historic fiscal shift by suspending stability rules and issuing €800 billion in common debt through the Next Generation EU fund to transfer resources from stronger to weaker member states. While this expansionary strategy, supported by the European Central Bank and a new German coalition, introduces a "stick and carrot" reform mechanism, it faces significant hurdles including potential moral hazard, legal challenges to the Maastricht Treaty, and the resilience of nationalist forces. The long-term sustainability of this integration depends on whether the bloc can manage temporary measures, navigate political risks like a potential French populist return, and adapt outdated fiscal criteria to current economic conditions before the recovery fund winds down.