Interview, Fireside Chat
2024: the year of elections
- Over half the world's population is expected to vote in 2024, with the U.S. November election deemed the year's most consequential event regarding global affairs and American democracy.
- Global populism is projected to advance due to voter dissatisfaction, with hard-right nationalist parties in Europe expected to gain significant ground in nine national, regional, and European Parliament elections, particularly by focusing on migration.
- Incumbents in the United States face re-election challenges compared to outsiders, while the 2024 U.S. election is anticipated to feature unusually stark policy differences between candidates that will heavily influence foreign policy.
- A potential Trump presidency is predicted to lead to a U.S. turn inward, potentially withdrawing large-scale constructive global roles and triggering a full-blown European security crisis by reducing military support for Ukraine.
- If the U.S. retrenches, it is expected to create a vacuum allowing destructive forces to gain influence, while Europe remains unable to achieve strategic military autonomy within a single year despite potential Article 5 credibility concerns.
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forecast to remain indecisive in 2024 with no expected fundamental battlefield shifts or winners, though rearmament and training in 2024 will determine the outcome by 2025 or 2026.
- Russia is expected to delay policy adjustments on Ukraine pending the November U.S. election results, continue offensive air bombardments to aid Putin's March electoral prospects, and see Ukraine's elections remain impossible under continued martial law.
- Diplomatic or negotiated outcomes for the Ukraine war are projected to become more likely if Western support remains robust in 2025, whereas 2024 is expected to be a period of military and diplomatic stalemate.
- The U.S. military industrial base is currently insufficient to operate across the Middle East, Europe, and Indo-Pacific simultaneously without increased and more intelligent spending.
- Future U.S. relations with China are expected to remain economically confrontational under a Trump administration, potentially involving across-the-board tariffs, while the U.S. election outcome is identified as the primary factor for Taiwan's future, overshadowing Taiwan's own election results.
- The UK is expected to lose the next election, likely resulting in a Labour government that may pursue a strategic reset with the EU covering science, trade, and defense, or a coalition minority government.
- A shared crisis of European security is anticipated to drive the UK and EU toward closer cooperation regardless of the U.S. election outcome, with the EU-UK relationship expected to follow either a path of hyper-gradualism or a comprehensive reset.