Interview
a16z Podcast | Open vs. Closed, Alpha Cities, and the Industries of the Future
- The 21st-century geopolitical and economic dynamic is projected to shift from a traditional left-versus-right framework to a binary of "open versus closed" systems, with societies embracing openness predicted to lead in future industries.
- Specific states are identified as extremes in this binary, with North Korea characterized as the "closest to a perfectly closed society" and Iceland as the "closest to a perfectly open society."
- Western European governments are forecasted to adopt increasingly closed data sovereignty measures, including "right to be forgotten" and "safe harbor" regulations, while the United States is expected to become "closed off" through rising surveillance and control-oriented policies.
- Federal and state block grants are expected to feature conditionality to ensure funding is directed toward future industries, coinciding with a reorientation of vocational education and community colleges to target sectors with substantial anticipated job growth and wealth creation.
- The "next trillion dollar industry" is predicted to emerge from the "genetic code," with estimates ranging from one to three trillion dollars, potentially surpassing previous technology-driven sectors.
- Future economic organizing units are expected to shift from the national level to the "metropolitan region basis," with 80% of the anticipated 10 to 15 "tier one cities" or "alpha cities" located outside the United States.
- Global economic progression is anticipated to see many current frontier markets evolve into developing economies, driven by sufficient growth in these regions.
- A "code war" is predicted to continue as a primary conflict dynamic, described as the most significant development in warfare since the weaponization of fissile material, where malware may be repurposed by actors with fewer capabilities using code originally developed by nation-states.
- Success in future industries is expected to favor individuals who combine technical and scientific strengths with humanities expertise, while entrepreneurs are advised to adopt expeditionary strategies and move beyond their geographic comfort zones to identify product opportunities.