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Bloomberg Television2h 24m

Bloomberg Surveillance 11/13/2026

Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, Tom Mackenzie, Dan Ives, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Chris Verrone, Ian Buck, Doug Clinton, Priya Misra, Marc Short, Kevin Gordon, Jim Secreto, Michelle Weaver, Gil Luria, Nela Richardson, Tracie McMillion, Sen. Chris Coons, Ismael Lee, Michael Shepard, Chris Coons

Earnings Call, Interview, Press Conference, Roundtable
  • The departure of Jensen Huang is expected to alter NVIDIA's trajectory and reduce its valuation to approximately $225 per share compared to $300, though the company is projected to retain a two-to-three-year lead over China and domestic competition while facing potential leadership changes involving interim CEO Colette Kress or external candidates like Tim Cook.
  • AI capital expenditure of $3 trillion to $4 trillion is forecast to remain stable with NVIDIA securing a significant portion, yet the pace of innovation may slow, and specific large-scale deals, including a $500 billion financing backstop and a $10 billion investment in Anthropic, face suspension or cancellation risks under new leadership.
  • NVIDIA's product roadmap for the coming years is expected to proceed with "Rubin," "Rubin Ultra," and "Feynman" chips, while AI usage metrics are projected to surge with agentic token use increasing 34-fold and human-based LLM queries rising four to five times, despite a potential "air pocket" concern in 2028 driven by energy supply delays.
  • Microsoft is expected to continue stabilizing after service outages lasting nearly 24 hours, though uncertainty remains regarding the cause, whether cyber-related or cloud infrastructure issues, alongside increasing scrutiny of its AI leadership and service reliability.
  • Regulatory scrutiny is anticipated to intensify regarding chip export controls, potentially leading to a Republican Senate Banking Chair subpoenaing Jensen Huang and Congress introducing bipartisan legislation to tighten oversight, alongside government scrutiny of equity stakes in private companies described as a "Solyndra on steroids" scenario.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a restrictive policy stance with a bias toward further tightening, potentially implementing three to four more rate hikes in 25 basis point increments to combat inflation that is viewed as "far too high" and "sticky," aiming to reach a 2% objective while protecting maximum employment.
  • Economic indicators suggest a defensive market tilt with a modest slowdown expected over the next couple of quarters due to higher rates and inflation, though a recession is deemed unlikely absent material labor market weakness, as initial claims remain low and the labor market shows resilience.
  • Inflationary pressures are expected to persist in the short term but potentially turn disinflationary by 2027 due to softening energy and commodity prices, with the PPI report serving as a key data point for tracking inflation spillover from energy into other goods.
  • Currency markets are projected to see the U.S. dollar strengthen significantly against the Euro and approach the 160 level against the Japanese Yen, driven by a "panic move" into dollars and differing interest rate expectations, while two-year Treasury yields are expected to fully price in unanticipated rate hikes.
  • Credit markets are expected to signal a slowdown if lower-rated "triple-C" credit seizes up, while "double-B" and "triple-B" instruments remain resilient, with financial stocks acting as a communication of market trends after hitting six-month relative highs.
  • Market valuation expectations include S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.5% next year supporting a valuation near 8,700, with a potential year-end rally ranging between 7,100 and 7,300 following a mid-cycle correction that is expected to last approximately 50 days.
  • Consumer behavior is expected to shift toward spending incrementally more in December driven by price sensitivity rather than volume, with the U.S. economy showing resilience as consumers continue spending at higher price levels supported by wealth effects.
  • The supply of compute is identified as a major focus for 2027 and 2028, with potential financing and permitting disruptions in Ohio and Texas, while efficiency in computing will become a priority as companies seek to maximize existing assets.
  • The market is expected to price in a "neutral rate" that is much higher than current levels, with a shift in leadership beyond big tech stocks raising questions about the remaining 490 names' ability to drive the index, while the AI trade is projected to remain robust despite volatility.
  • A potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla is anticipated to be announced as soon as December, described as one of the "biggest deals ever," while new AI projects may be pushed from 2028 into 2029 without outright cancellation.
  • Guardrails and regulatory oversight on big tech are expected to increase, particularly concerning cybersecurity and human malfunctions in the AI cloud, even as the AI revolution continues and benefits drive margins for 44% of S&P 500 companies, with financials showing two-thirds of firms tracking these gains.