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Bloomberg Television2h 24m

Bloomberg Surveillance 11/9/2026

Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern, Grace Peters, Jon Lieber, Dominique Toublan, Kit Juckes, Sarah Hunt, Leland Miller, Matt Witheiler, Oksana Aronov, Liz Thomas, William Dudley, Seth Carpenter, Mike Contopoulos, Isabel Lee, Tyler Kendall, Bill Dudley

Interview, Conference Presentation
  • Market sell-offs are viewed as overdone with a rebound anticipated, while the early-year rally is considered excessive, prompting expectations for capital discipline to emerge and reduce the pace of investment rather than causing a collapse.
  • The AI sector is expected to mature with greater dispersion in returns, maintaining a role through 2025 and 2026 before a potential slowdown in semiconductors' earnings cycle, while hyperscalers are projected to recover in just over a year despite current negative free cash flow.
  • An AI capital expenditure super cycle is forecast to sustain through 2025 and 2026, though permitting and data center build-out delays expected from 2028 onward may increase the premium on scarcity value and shift focus toward non-tech or "unloved" market sectors.
  • Earnings growth consensus is projected at mid-teens for the current year and next, declining to 10% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, with the S&P 500 reasonably valued at roughly 17 times 2027 earnings and a price target of 8,000 set for December 2027.
  • Regulatory and geopolitical uncertainties involving NVIDIA, Jensen Huang, potential smuggling reports, and U.S. export controls are expected to introduce scrutiny to the AI trade, while U.S. election outcomes and potential inflationary relief from lower oil prices remain key market drivers.
  • Portfolio strategy recommends a 60/40 allocation supplemented by alternatives like hedge funds, infrastructure, and gold, particularly if there is a risk of U.S. institutional credibility loss, with fixed income serving as a diversifier against AI cycle risks.
  • Geopolitical risks are expected to diminish regarding strikes in Iran, with the President holding off on new actions, though Marco Rubio's hawkish stance suggests no imminent deal with Tehran, potentially keeping oil prices stable.
  • Share buybacks are expected to increase from sectors other than hyperscalers as capital efficiency improves, balancing the market against a backdrop where investors may downgrade the U.S. and upgrade the rest of the world as non-tech stocks outperform.