Can flying go green?

Strategic Shifts and Crisis Context

• The aviation industry faces its worst economic crisis in history, driven by the pandemic and rising environmental pressure from "flight shaming" movements.
• COVID-19 is viewed by industry leaders as a catalyst to accelerate a "green reset" and build back sustainable infrastructure faster.
• Without decarbonization technologies, aviation emissions could account for 22% of the planet's total emissions by 2050.

Hydrogen Technology: The Primary Competitor

• Hydrogen-electric aircraft have recently overtaken electric batteries as the leading contender for cleaner flying due to higher energy density per volume.
• Airbus plans to introduce hydrogen-burning jet engines within 15 years.
• The EU projects hydrogen technologies could reduce the industry's carbon emissions by up to 75% by 2050.
• Currently, the world's largest hydrogen-electric aircraft is undergoing flight testing with the goal of achieving expected performance metrics.
• Fuel cell operation produces only water vapor as a byproduct, resulting in zero carbon emissions.
• Hydrogen packs less energy per given volume than jet fuel, necessitating extensive aircraft redesigns including larger tanks and modified shapes.
• Commercial viability for hydrogen-powered planes is estimated to be at least two decades away.
• Val Miftikoff, CEO of a sustainable aviation company, states that his firm received $3.3 million in British government funding, which was crucial for their R&D phase.
• Installing the necessary hydrogen distribution and production infrastructure is estimated to cost at least $500 billion.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Near-Term Solutions

• Since July, the right engine of an Airbus A321 has been powered by biofuel, utilizing a "drop-in" solution that requires no changes to airport infrastructure.
• Sustainable fuels are derived from synthetic sources, biological crops, algae, or waste.
• Experts identify a "chicken and egg" problem where airlines refuse to buy fuel that is three times more expensive than conventional jet fuel, while producers need guaranteed large orders to lower costs.
• Airlines indicate they would purchase sustainable aviation fuel if it were only 50% more expensive than conventional fuel.

Economic Obstacles and Policy Requirements

• A primary industry barrier is that green technologies require significant investment, yet capital is scarce during the current economic downturn.
• Government support is deemed essential, including:
  • Incentives such as taxes on dirty fuels.
  • Mandates requiring airlines to purchase a specific proportion of cleaner fuels.
  • Direct investment funds to bridge the gap during the R&D phase.
• Val Miftikoff argues that radically new technologies cannot be commercially competitive without early-stage government support in this capital-intensive industry.
• Industry experts suggest that achieving zero-carbon flight may result in a slight premium on air tickets, a cost consumers may need to absorb.