Bloomberg Television36 min
Chile Is in Recession, But Will Rebound, Says Finance Minister Quiroz
Interview, Fireside Chat
- Economic growth is projected at approximately 3% for next year, with a more precise estimate of 3.3%, while recovery is anticipated by the end of this year or definitively in the coming year, with rates expected to approach 4% by 2028.
- Investment growth is forecasted at 8% for both the current year and next year, with new mining investments impacting capital investment next year and production effects materializing two to three years hence.
- Environmental approvals received this year are expected to come online by the end of next year or 2028, while projects approved early in the current administration but delayed for years are scheduled to commence in 2027.
- Copper production targets 5.5 to 6 million tons within the next five years, and future foreign investment in Chilean refineries for copper cathode production is anticipated.
- The fiscal deficit is expected to close at 1.8% of GDP currently, a reduction from 2.8% in 2025, with a 1% GDP deficit reduction valued at roughly $3.5 billion.
- Total expenditure growth is projected at 2.4% for the current year, with approximately half of the planned expenditure adjustment executed by year-end.
- Government debt is expected to decline relative to GDP as the economy grows between 3% and 4% in real terms.
- The ratio of bonds issued abroad versus locally is expected to maintain a two-thirds local and one-third foreign split through 2027.
- Revenue expectations for next year are positive, potentially accelerating tax reductions or introducing additional individual tax cuts if results remain strong.
- A reduction in government stress and improved administration conditions for the successor is anticipated, alongside a projected recovery in government approval ratings to overcome current lows by year-end.
- Long-term private capital participation regarding Codelco is expected to be discussed, while foreign investment screening details are anticipated within the next six months.
- Socioeconomic outcomes include expectations for youth to secure jobs and purchase homes, contributing to a national return to optimism and a belief in becoming a developed nation.