Interview
Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine (2022)
- The forecasting community is experiencing a renaissance, with plans to launch a "telling the future" Substack and a return to weekly podcast schedules in the near future, emphasizing that combining domain expertise with forecasting training can yield super forecaster levels of accuracy.
- The global order is expected to shift significantly by 2025 compared to 2015, transitioning from unipolar to multipolar structures that increase the base rate for invasions, with Russia and Europe playing different roles amidst rising authoritarianism.
- The war in Ukraine is predicted to continue for one to two years barring rapid collapses of the Ukrainian or Russian governments, driven by Russia's preparedness for prolonged conflict in the south and east regions.
- Inflation and elevated food and fertilizer prices are expected to cause significant turmoil for four plus years, potentially leading to starvation, government instability, and a shift in world order.
- While a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is considered less likely in the immediate future due to the consequences of the Ukraine conflict, there is a non-trivial expectation of such an event within the next five years, with some forecasts estimating the probability double or triple current Metaculus predictions.
- The risk of nuclear escalation is elevated above the normal baseline of 0.4% per year, with specific estimates for nuclear weapon use before a peace deal signed at 8% to 12%, and the risk of a nuclear attack on London within the next year assessed as non-trivial.
- The likelihood of a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine is viewed as the most probable scenario for nuclear use, potentially used to "shake the heads" of the West or change conflict terms, though the exact probability is uncertain and could rise higher if other flashpoints like Iran-Israel or China-Taiwan activate.
- US military capabilities are expected to face strain, with a 2018 Senate commission noting the inability to fight a two-front war while defending the homeland, alongside concerns about depleting stockpiles of Javelins, MiG fighters, and other logistics supplies.
- US involvement in Ukraine has been more extensive than expected in logistics, intelligence, and training, which was a significant factor in Ukrainian performance, though public pressure may force escalation scenarios like no-fly zones if atrocities occur.
- The information environment has shifted from a "wild west" pre-invasion state to a more sanitized flow post-invasion, with reduced trustworthiness in tracking Russian movements on social media and a lack of effective clear red lines for nuclear use increasing miscommunication risks.
- Democracy in the United States faces long-term pressures regarding survival due to authoritarianism, while the US is not expected to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal and may face instability if it cannot credibly signal responses to Russian actions.
- The conflict in Ukraine may be viewed as the beginning of a World War scenario with an estimated probability of one or two percent, occurring if actions since 2020 (COVID, Russia-Ukraine) constitute a coordinated global escalation.
- The West's ability to signal responses has weakened due to public opinion changes regarding sanctions and weapons delivery, increasing the risk that pressure for escalation will mount if Russia commits further atrocities.
- Forecasting skills are expected to improve through high-volume practice, deep theoretical "hedgehog" approaches, and collaboration with others for sanity checks, rather than casual news consumption or personal life forecasting.