Interview, Podcast
Coming up Trump: our election model puts Harris behind
The EconomistTrump, Harris, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Dan Rosenheck, Simon Wright, Shailesh Chitnas
- Donald Trump holds a 56% probability of winning the U.S. presidential election, marking a 10-percentage-point increase from the prior week, with a specific likelihood of flipping competitive swing states including Michigan and Wisconsin.
- While Kamala Harris is projected to secure the popular vote with a probability exceeding 70%, Trump is currently viewed as slightly more likely to win the presidency, potentially allowing him to win the popular vote as well.
- Trump's current polling advantage is attributed to converting undecided and third-party voters in key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
- Elon Musk forecasts the Cyber Taxi will be available before 2027, though historical timelines suggest potential slippage, with the vehicle expected to cost under $30,000 and utilize a neural network trained on 9 billion miles of driving data.
- Plans for Tesla include launching a fleet of 20-passenger Robo Vans and releasing a humanoid robot described as the company's most significant product ever.
- Regulatory hurdles for Tesla's camera-only neural network deployment are anticipated to be significant, as authorities may remain skeptical regarding the system's ability to manage edge cases safely.
- Competitors are advancing autonomously, with Waymo launching services in Atlanta and Austin soon, while Baidu targets 1,000 autonomous vehicles in Wuhan by the end of the current year.
- The widespread availability of most autonomous ride-hailing services globally is expected to require a fairly long wait despite immediate competitor launches.
- Microsoft Excel is projected to integrate AI capabilities for natural language data analysis to enhance functionality rather than face disruption, maintaining its dominant position for financial analysts and consultants in the foreseeable future.