Conference Presentation, Panel
Driverless Cars and Beyond: Where's Transportation Headed?
Milken InstituteSue Callaway, Chris Ballinger, Brian Kelly, Doug Newcomb, Raj Rajkumar, Juraj Vaculik, Vasilis Galavaniskaya, Martha Minowski, Raj Kumar
- Disruption in transportation is expected to occur over the next decade, with full self-driving technology potentially achievable in approximately 10 years, though current capabilities remain insufficient for human-level driving from any point A to point B.
- Autonomous vehicles are projected to mitigate approximately 1.3 million annual global traffic fatalities and reduce the roughly 35 hours per week average Americans waste in traffic, while restoring mobility for the legally blind and those with cognitive impairments.
- Regulatory frameworks are expected to evolve significantly, with a federal draft released by NHTSA likely this summer to establish unified communication requirements between manufacturers and the government, potentially overriding the current patchwork of 50 state regulations.
- Emerging risks include cybersecurity threats, data privacy breaches allowing third-party access to biometric data such as heart rate, and the potential for federal regulations to lag behind rapid technological development.
- Economic shifts are anticipated as major automakers like Toyota launch financial services and insurance products to support "car by the mile" models, while data monetization could enable new loan access for individuals without sufficient income.
- The industry is expected to transition toward shared, autonomous, and connected mobility, with young populations increasingly favoring ride-sharing over ownership, exemplified by revenue shifts where Uber grew by $1 billion versus a $50 million drop in San Francisco taxi revenues between 2014 and 2015.
- Global adoption varies by region, with China and India likely to leapfrog private car ownership to mobility services due to inexpensive labor and infrastructure challenges, while countries like Germany prioritize autonomous vehicles and California targets 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2025.
- Significant workforce disruptions are predicted for trucking, bus, cab, and shuttle industries, though historical trends suggest the creation of new roles focused on diagnosing and fixing high-technology equipment like cameras and radars.
- Future transportation systems may expand into three dimensions through the integration of flying cars, a process involving product development, certification, and infrastructure that could eventually make systems three times more efficient and safer.
- Competition for market share is intensifying between established car manufacturers and IT companies, with the latter potentially underestimating automotive complexities while startups and universities serve as key innovation and talent sources.
- Corporate strategies are shifting toward multimodal solutions, with companies like BMW offering apps to switch to transit during traffic and public transit systems like Caltrain Plus incorporating car-sharing to improve door-to-door experiences.
- Investment is expected to flow into smart city infrastructure, digital mapping, and specialized trade corridors, driven by the need for vehicles to communicate with streets and bridges to meet emission requirements.
- Deployment challenges include the necessity for human drivers to remain in vehicles during early autonomous phases to address bugs, as well as the complexity of operating in chaotic environments with non-standard lane markings.
- Public transportation faces mixed prospects, with global ridership hitting historical highs in areas like Phoenix, yet California public transit ridership is expected to remain lower than desired relative to historical investment levels.
- Specific vehicle data metrics indicate 12 total accidents and hundreds of disengagements for Google's autonomous vehicles in the first reporting year, with disengagements viewed as a response to real-world conditions rather than definitive failures.