How strong is Iran’s regime?

Iran's Regional Strategy and Current Status

• Israel's actions have effectively neutralized Iran's previous "forward defence" strategy, which relied on recruiting militias and leveraging alliances with Assad's Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Inside Iran, some assessments suggest the strategy still held value by delaying the timing of Israel's attack, though it is viewed externally as a failure.
• Resurrecting this proxy network is now considered highly difficult due to the loss of Iranian presence in Syria, which is now dominated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
• Recent Iranian focus has shifted away from nuclear weaponization and proxy groups toward a "missiles only" approach.

Regime Stability and Succession

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (86, frail) remains the central figure of power, though his recent retreat during a 12-day conflict has raised questions about his visible authority.
• Khamenei reportedly drew up a list of potential successors that excluded his favored son, Mojtaba, in favor of three other unnamed candidates.
• Speculation regarding the succession is currently muted in public discourse but actively discussed in private settings, with past leaders like Ebrahim Raisi previously emerging as "stalking horses" before their selection.
• The traditional reformist-versus-hardline binary is becoming increasingly irrelevant as decision-making is now driven by money, turf, and shifting alliances rather than ideology.
• Predictions for the regime's longevity diverge: one view suggests collapse within five years due to public misery, while another argues the regime will survive by reinventing itself.

Ideological Shifts and Nationalist Reinvention

• The regime is actively pivoting toward a nationalist narrative to maintain power, evidenced by the erection of pre-Islamic Persian statues in Tehran and the public acceptance of dropping the mandatory veil.
• Observers note that Iranian society is highly secular, with religious presence on the streets described as minimal and people living ordinary, modern lives disconnected from theocracy.
• The leadership recognizes that the original revolutionary ideology no longer fits the population's desire for international integration and connection.
• The nuclear program is characterized not as an Islamic project but as a "national bomb," rooted in the Shah's era and likely to persist regardless of a shift away from theocracy.

Economic Tensions and the Role of the IRGC

• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) derives significant power and revenue from maintaining a closed economy and exploiting sanctions, creating resistance to any open-market reforms.
• There is a fundamental conflict between the population's desire for global integration and the IRGC's interest in keeping Iran isolated to protect its economic monopolies.
• Iran has implemented its own protectionist measures against foreign competition, such as limiting Chinese entry, to sustain domestic productivity.
• An open economy poses a direct threat to the IRGC's ability to control resources and maintain its grip on power.