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Nicolas Pelham

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  1. The Economist8 min

    Why civil war is brewing in Iran

    Nicolas Pelham, Jason Palmer

    Iran is currently experiencing a violent "quiet civil war" where the state and royalist factions have polarized following a shift from peaceful protest to extreme bloodshed driven by economic collapse. The conflict features mutual accusations of foreign mercenary involvement and the sidelining of traditional democratic leaders in favor of armed mobilization, even as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains isolated while exiled figures and tribal groups prepare further escalation. This escalating crisis, occurring amidst potential U.S. military intervention, threatens to plunge the Islamic Republic into an unpredictable transition that could result in either Revolutionary Guard dominance or a prolonged struggle for power.

  2. The Economist18 min

    The biggest bank heist in history (and why you've never heard of it)

    Nicolas Pelham, Hussein Kanbar Agha, Jonathan Beckman, Mustafa Kadhimi, Mohammad Soudani, Thea Jahar-Lafda

    In August 2022, a systematic theft of $2.5 billion from the Iraqi General Commission for Taxes was exposed, with the central plotter Noor Zahair bypassing official controls to distribute funds to five shell companies. Although Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi's administration initially arrested Zahair as part of a political maneuver against the pro-Iranian Fatah Alliance, the subsequent government collapse led to Zahair's release and the issuance of arrest warrants for the investigators. The operation exemplifies a broader pattern of grand corruption where the majority of the stolen cash remains missing and is allegedly reinvested into Baghdad's construction boom while key figures evade lasting legal consequences.

Nicolas Pelham: Interviews, Talks and Panel Discussions