Fireside Chat, Interview, Conference Presentation
How strong is Iran’s regime?
- Iran's forward defense strategy involving proxies may be viewed as delaying an Israeli attack rather than a total failure, though resurrecting this strategy is uncertain due to Syria's current dominance by Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
- Strategic planning may have shifted priorities from nuclear weaponization and proxy networks toward enhanced missile capabilities.
- The succession process for the Supreme Leader is expected to be a complex, non-public affair that may take time, with any initial "stalking horse" candidate unlikely to be the eventual successor.
- Projections regarding regime stability are divergent, ranging from a high probability of regime fall within five years due to public unrest to an expectation that the regime will remain in power for the foreseeable future despite previous collapse predictions.
- A leadership change is anticipated to be the most dangerous moment since the Supreme Leader's rise, potentially triggering a regime change, though the leadership may attempt to survive by reinventing itself with a new nationalist narrative while retaining existing figures.
- The regime is expected to adapt to its secular population and shift toward nationalist symbols, though the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely to resist economic reforms and integration that threaten revenue from sanctions.
- A persistent tension is expected to grow between the IRGC's preference for a closed economy and the population's desire for international reconnection.
- The nuclear program is projected to continue regardless of political shifts, as it is viewed as a national project, with the regime expected to sustain itself through domestic oil and fuel resources.
- Economic policy is expected to remain characterized by monopoly control and protectionist measures, including "sanctions" against foreign competitors like China, which may serve to limit external competition.