May 2, 2013, 5:03 PM ETPanel, Conference Presentation

Longevity Is Opportunity: Riding the Demographic Wave

Global life expectancy in the Western world has risen from ~50 in the early 20th century to nearly 80 today, while "healthspan" (years lived without disease) has lagged significantly.
The number of people over 65 in the U.S. is currently ~20 million and projected to reach ~80 million within 25 years.
The population over 85 is projected to grow to 20 million by 2050.
A historic demographic inversion is occurring: by 2020, the global population over 60 is projected to exceed the population under 14 by 1 billion.
The "over 50" demographic in the U.S. spends approximately $3.5 trillion annually, dwarfing the ~$800 billion spent by Generation Y.
Japan serves as a precursor to global trends, with 40% of its population projected to be over 60 within a few years.

The traditional "three-legged stool" of retirement (pensions, Social Security, personal savings) has collapsed; defined-benefit plans now cover only ~20% of participants, and the average benefit was historically only $400/year.
Defined-contribution models (e.g., 401k) require workers saving from age 30 to age 67 to contribute 13–14% of income to replace 85% of pre-retirement earnings.
Current savings data indicates that 50% of Americans aged 45–54 have saved less than one-fifth of what they will need for retirement.
The average U.S. retirement age has only risen marginally from 63 to 64 over the last 25 years, remaining largely static despite increased longevity.
The "magic age" of 65 is a 19th-century political construct by Otto von Bismarck, not a biological standard for the modern lifespan of 80–90 years.
Nearly 9 million U.S. workers are engaged in "Encore careers" (post-primary career work), a demographic growing rapidly.
Entrepreneurship rates for those aged 55–64 are nearly double those of the 20–24 age group.

Health expenditures rise dramatically for those over 65, driven largely by the gap between lifespan and healthspan.
Alzheimer's disease prevalence affects 20% of people over 70 and ~66% of those over 90 (including mild cognitive impairment).
Current global spending on dementia care is >$200 billion annually; without intervention, this is projected to reach $1 trillion in 30 years.
Delaying the onset of dementia by just five years could reduce lifetime costs by 75%, saving ~$500 billion annually.
Prevention and wellness programs yield a $6 return for every $1 invested through reduced absenteeism and improved health outcomes.
A startup called Neuropath claims 90% accuracy in diagnosing Alzheimer's in pre-symptomatic individuals using neuroscience IP.
Unpaid family caregiving in the U.S. is valued at $450 billion annually but remains outside GDP calculations.
Approximately 80% of healthcare dollars are spent in the last year of life, with 50% spent in the final month.

BMW implemented an age-inclusive assembly line (e.g., wooden flooring, ergonomic adjustments) to retain older workers, resulting in a 7% productivity increase and reduced absenteeism.
Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) are becoming a primary mechanism for transferring family business ownership to management when heirs lack interest.
Programs like "Happy Returns" allow employees to retire, then return to work with flexibility, retaining institutional knowledge and satisfying personal fulfillment.
~70% of Boomers are willing to accept financial sacrifices in their roles to mentor younger generations.
Singapore is incentivizing older workers to return to the labor force due to a shortage of young workers.
The "sandwich generation" (caring for children and aging parents simultaneously) represents a new workforce pressure point with four generations potentially in the labor force.

There is currently only one school of gerontology in the U.S. (at USC), highlighting a massive deficit in formalized education for this field.
Hasi Cohen and the Global Coalition on Aging are developing seven business principles for population aging, focusing on caregiving, lifelong learning, and wellness.
Private equity and venture capital are currently under-invested in longevity-focused funds despite the $3.5 trillion spending power of the over-50 demographic.
A new "CEO Initiative" is emerging among non-healthcare firms (e.g., Microsoft, Bank of America) to address the high costs of aging, including dementia.
Visual deterioration (e.g., cataracts) is identified as a primary driver of falls; China is addressing this by performing 2 million cataract surgeries annually.
The "wellness" market is identified as the new "DARPA," requiring a shift from paying for acute care to investing in prevention and early detection.
Intergenerational tension is overstated; the workforce shortage and intergenerational mentorship models suggest collaboration rather than competition.
Lifetime learning is reimagined as a core pillar, with arguments that serious education should not be confined to ages 18–28.