Conference Presentation, Panel
Stopping Alzheimer's: Personal, Economic and Policy Imperatives
Milken InstituteNeil de Crescenzo, Robert Hormats, Sue Siegel, George Vradenburg, Anne Whitaker, Cecilia Arradaza, Bob Hormats, Peggy Wallace, Michael Miller
- Demographic projections indicate one in nine Americans aged 65 and older, and one in three aged 85 and older, will develop Alzheimer's, with two-thirds of affected seniors being women.
- Economic implications include a potential U.S. cost of up to $215 billion annually and a global dementia cost exceeding $600 billion, with the condition representing the 18th largest economy if treated as a country and driving sovereign debt risks in developing nations.
- Research challenges stem from a historical attrition rate where only three of 104 pursued medicines were approved since 1998, though 93 compounds are currently in research, with success dependent on establishing biomarkers and surrogate markers.
- Strategic plans involve preventing disease onset or delaying progression before symptom onset, requiring a shift from large clinical trials to basic science understanding, and a potential 2025 goal for prevention and treatment under the National Alzheimer's Action Plan.
- Funding expectations suggest a minimum annual investment of $2 billion, up from current levels of $530 million against cancer's $6 billion, with a specific scenario projecting a cure within five years if funding reaches $2 billion annually for 10 years and processes are expedited.
- Technological and data strategies anticipate 40 billion connected devices by 2020, leveraging databases and early diagnostic tools to manage the problem of people having the disease 15 to 20 years before diagnosis, with a future focus on data liquidity and patient engagement.
- Global perspectives note that while the U.S. share of basic science funding may decline relative to rising investments by nations like China and India, rapid progress is expected from China's government response, and major international bodies including the WHO, G8, WTO, and APEC are anticipated to address economic and debt risks.
- Potential outcomes of solving the disease include retaining a productive elderly workforce, reducing costs to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security by multiples of government investment, and transforming the economic landscape similar to the post-polio era.
- Corporate and organizational actions include Sanofi's commitment to basic science, GE's focus on early diagnosis to enhance productivity, Cisco's data management solutions, and expectations that a successful investment in Cognition Therapeutics could create the world's largest company.
- Risks involve a global loss if the problem remains unaddressed, potential dramatic increases in entitlement program costs without intervention, and the difficulty of research progress if biomarkers and surrogate markers are not successfully determined.