Dec 8, 2024, 11:45 AM ETInterview

The case that war isn't in decline | Bear Braumoeller (2022)

Bear B. Moller's book Only the Dead challenges the mainstream "decline of war" thesis, arguing there is no robust evidence for a long-term downward trend in interstate conflict.
Moller's analysis of three different measures of war (raw lethality, lethality per capita, and lethality as a percentage of world population) reveals decline only in one specific metric during the end of the Cold War; otherwise, rates have remained stagnant or increased.
There is no evidence suggesting the threat of war today is materially lower than in previous centuries where catastrophic wars occurred.
Patterns of international order (e.g., the Liberal International Order, the Soviet order, the Concert of Europe) are far better predictors of conflict variation than long-term trends in human progress or Enlightenment values.
The persistence of war is driven by the structure of international orders rather than changes in individual human psychology or moral attitudes.

Moller rejects the idea that the Enlightenment naturally leads to peace, noting it generated nationalist ideologies, justifications for colonialism, and revolutionary wars (e.g., French Revolution, Russian Revolution) that were highly destructive.
The "Democratic Peace Theory" (democracies rarely fight each other) is questioned; statistical analysis suggests the reduction in conflict is due to the broader "Kantian triad" (democracy, trade, shared institutions) and the stability of the specific international order, with democracy being the least critical component.
Religion has historically been a driver of both war (Reformation conflicts) and peace (the Christian unity behind the Concert of Europe's "Holy Alliance").
Steven Pinker's methodology is criticized for relying on "lethality per world population," a metric Moller argues treats war as a public health issue rather than a behavioral one, failing to account for the increasing size of the global population.
The "ecological inference fallacy" is central to Moller's critique: aggregate group behavior (war) cannot be deduced from individual attitudes (declining personal violence), as states have their own incentives and dynamics.

Moller utilizes the Correlates of War (CoW) dataset (1815–present), focusing on interstate wars defined by a threshold of 1,000 battle deaths and militarized interstate disputes (MIDs).
He employs "permutation tests" (re-sampling) and "change-point analysis" to identify statistically significant breaks in war trends, correcting for the fact that power-law distributions of war sizes fool standard statistical tests.
The "power law" of war means a small number of wars cause the vast majority of deaths; this distribution has remained stable since 1815, with no evidence of a decline in the "escalatory propensity" (the likelihood of a war growing larger).
Moller found a massive (50%) drop in conflict initiation only after the end of the Cold War (1989), but no secular decline over the preceding two centuries.
The analysis accounts for "multiple testing" issues by simulating thousands of configurations to ensure significant findings are not statistical artifacts.
Data limitations include the exclusion of non-state actors in the primary analysis and potential West-centric coding biases in the 19th century, though Moller argues these would require massive deviations to alter the overall conclusion of no long-term decline.

The Concert of Europe (1815–1853): A conservative, monarchical order where major powers prioritized peace over ideology to suppress revolution; it is the longest period of peace in modern European history, maintained through active intervention and ad-hoc congresses.
The Bismarckian System (1870s–1890s): A complex web of alliances designed by Otto von Bismarck to isolate France and balance power, preventing any coalition strong enough to wage war against Germany.
The Cold War: Characterized by two nested orders (Liberal West and Soviet East); peace was maintained within orders, while conflict occurred between them, suggesting that multiple competing orders increase the risk of inter-order war.
Current System: The liberal international order has expanded to the point of clashing with Russia's sphere of influence (Near Abroad) and China's assertive rise, creating a high-risk environment where "wiggle room" for diplomatic compromise has vanished.
Moller notes that while a single hegemon could theoretically ensure global peace (the "Pax Romana" model), the ideological and normative barriers to the US accepting a truly universal, non-democratic order make this politically impossible.

Escalation Risk: Moller emphasizes that the primary danger is not the start of a war, but its escalation; modern wars have the potential to become catastrophic because the escalatory propensity has not decreased.
Sanctions as Deterrence: Broad economic sanctions on Russia serve as a vital signal to China regarding the high costs of annexing territory (e.g., in Taiwan), potentially raising the threshold for future aggression.
Bargaining Theory of War: Conflicts persist because states value certain issues (ideology, territory, security) more than peace; ending war requires either changing these values or making the cost of war prohibitively high.
Information Gap: A major obstacle to peace is that decision-makers and the public underestimate the potential lethality and escalation of modern conflicts, failing to appreciate the risk of global devastation.
Recommendation: Moller suggests that the most effective individual contributions to reducing war risk involve gaining deep expertise in international relations and conflict studies to provide better-informed policy advice.

The War of Jenkins' Ear: A conflict between Britain and Spain triggered by the alleged cutting off of a British captain's ear, used as a political pretext for trade interests.
The Pig War: A 1859 border dispute between the US and UK that nearly escalated but ended without fatalities after an American farmer shot an Irish farmer's pig.
The Chaco War (Paraguay vs. Bolivia): A conflict fought over a region with no oil, yet it remains the deadliest war of the 20th century per capita, causing massive population loss in both nations.
The Paraguayan War: An alliance of Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil vs. Paraguay; also noted as one of the deadliest conflicts per capita in history, with the Paraguayan president immortalized for leading his nation to near-total destruction.