Bear Braumoeller
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The case that war isn't in decline | Bear Braumoeller (2022)
Bear B. Moller's analysis of interstate conflict from 1815 to the present challenges the prevailing "decline of war" thesis by demonstrating that only the post-1989 Cold War era saw a significant reduction in conflict initiation, while long-term trends in lethality and escalatory propensity have remained stagnant. The study attributes fluctuations in war frequency not to Enlightenment values or democratic peace theories, but to the specific structure of international orders, noting that the current clash between the liberal order and emerging powers like Russia and China has eliminated diplomatic buffers. Consequently, Moller argues that the primary contemporary risk lies in the catastrophic potential for escalation rather than the probability of conflict onset, urging that effective policy requires deep expertise in international relations to navigate these volatile structural shifts.