The Future of Decision Intelligence | Global Conference 2026

Panelists & Roles

• Brian Quintenz: Former CFTC Commissioner (2017–2021); Board member of Kalshi and its clearinghouse.
• Steph Gild: Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood; manages portfolios utilizing prediction markets as a sentiment data point.
• Paul Lieberman: Co-founder and President of Operations at DraftKings; oversees sports betting and prediction market products.

Core Value Proposition & Signal Quality

• Data Integration: Prediction markets serve as a high-frequency "mosaic" data point, offering faster sentiment signals than traditional institutional research or survey-based data.
• Dispassionate Pricing: Markets force participants to wager real capital, theoretically calibrating opinions against emotional biases (e.g., reducing emotional attachment to election outcomes).
• Price Discovery: The primary function is to aggregate disaggregated information to create accurate probability prices, similar to how futures markets price Fed decisions.
• Market Correlation: Prices across different exchanges (Kalshi, DraftKings, Robinhood) are expected to align due to arbitrage, similar to crypto asset pricing.
• Surpassing Traditional Sentiment: Panelists argue that combining prediction markets with social media (X) and podcasts provides a stronger signal than institutional reports alone due to real-time market speed.

Sports Betting vs. Prediction Markets

• Volume: Sports constitute approximately 70% of Kalshi's monthly volume, down from the high 80s, though election contracts are projected to surge during midterm cycles.
• Regulatory Distinction: Brian Quintenz distinguishes "speculation" (price discovery/risk management) from "gambling" (roulette-style betting) by emphasizing the economic consequence of outcomes, even in sports.
• House vs. Player: Unlike traditional sportsbooks where the "house" often acts as the counterparty, prediction markets are decentralized exchanges where participants trade against each other, reducing the conflict of interest regarding who wins or loses.
• Consumer Preference: DraftKings finds that in jurisdictions where legal, customers prefer the sportsbook experience due to promotions and engagement, but they support prediction markets to expand access to non-sports events.
• Micro-Markets: DraftKings and Kalshi are expanding into dynamic micro-contracts (e.g., "next pitch" outcomes), enabled by broad contract approvals that do not require individual event pre-approval.

Regulatory Framework & Enforcement

• Kalshi's Status: Kalshi spent four years securing a federal derivatives exchange license at the CFTC and two years in operational testing.
• Prohibited Contracts: CFTC regulations prevent listing contracts involving war, terrorism, assassination, or death if they incentivize harm; the agency views these as contrary to the public interest.
• Insider Trading: Kalshi employs Know Your Customer (KYC) checks, employment verification, and AI surveillance to detect suspiciously timed trades; however, no CFTC fines for insider trading have been issued to date.
• Self-Enforcement: Kalshi has fined and banned candidates who wagered on their own elections, applying exchange rules stricter than current federal mandates.
• Enforcement Timelines: Investigations into market abuse typically take 2–3 years due to judicial procedures, not a lack of resources.
• Unregulated Exchanges: The panel acknowledges the existence of offshore unregulated platforms (e.g., Polymarket) but distinguishes them from federal exchanges, warning that their activity does not represent the integrity of the regulated sector.

Integrity & Surveillance Mechanisms

• DraftKings' Approach: Uses an integrity team and AI to model behavior against historical norms, partnering with leagues and the DOJ to identify anomalous betting patterns.
• Data Advantage: Regulated markets provide superior data flow compared to the black market, enabling the identification of integrity issues that previously went unnoticed.
• Scope of Monitoring: Surveillance covers professional athletes, college sports, and, on prediction markets, verifies employment status to assess potential access to material non-public information.

Political Landscape & Future Outlook

• Political Risk: Panelists acknowledge political risk regarding future regulatory changes but remain committed to operating within the law and expanding federally regulated options.
• Bipolar Support: Kalshi has received advice from both Democratic (Stephanie Cutter) and Republican (Donald Trump Jr.) figures, aiming to maintain a non-partisan stance.
• State vs. Federal: Brian Quintenz notes that under current law, states cannot ban citizens from participating in federally regulated derivative exchanges (citing Michigan grain futures as a precedent).
• Upcoming Categories: Panelists anticipate growth in micro-bets on corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and potentially natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes), provided they do not incentivize harm.
• Future Product Roadmap: Robinhood plans to integrate sports event contracts more deeply into managed portfolios within the next 1–2 years, focusing on hedging risks like geopolitical instability.
• Trust Levels: All panelists agree prediction markets should be used as a data point for decision-making rather than a sole authority; none would rely on them 100% for high-stakes personal decisions without cross-referencing other data.

Specific Examples Cited

• Supreme Court Tariff Case: Kalshi correctly priced a 70% probability of the court overturning a tariff, highlighting the market's ability to aggregate legal analysis dispassionately.
• Palantir Earnings: Steph Gild used prediction market data to gauge sentiment regarding earnings beats, noting it as a superior alternative to analyst estimate revisions.
• 2024 Election: Robinhood's prediction markets successfully predicted the election outcome early, validating the model's speed relative to traditional polling.
• Venezuela/War Contracts: Unregulated exchanges allowed contracts on military actions (e.g., Venezuela) that raised ethical concerns, prompting dialogue on settlement criteria at regulated exchanges.