Conference Presentation, Panel
The Future of Decision Intelligence | Global Conference 2026
- Futures markets are expected to remain driven by Federal Reserve decisions and market sentiment, serving as a key data point influencing asset prices.
- Prediction markets are predicted to surpass traditional sentiment indicators by offering a market-driven, dispassionate assessment of event likelihoods that forces participants to rely on factual data.
- Market participation is projected to expand significantly from institutions to the general public, with customers increasingly viewing prediction data as a more immediate reflection of reality than institutional analyst reports.
- Sports markets are expected to constitute approximately 70% of Kalshi's volume currently, with this share predicted to expand significantly as midterm elections approach; if national elections occurred weekly, they would likely become the highest volume category.
- DraftKings anticipates high engagement and "amazing results" from launching prediction products alongside sportsbooks, though sportsbooks are expected to offer a superior consumer experience for sports-specific use cases due to better promotions and engagement features.
- Robinhood expects to potentially include sports event contracts within the next one to two years, contingent on infrastructure development, and plans to utilize prediction markets for hedging managed portfolios against geopolitical risks.
- Kalshi intends to maintain its federally regulated derivatives exchange model, having invested four years in licensing and two years in operational tests, while enforcing rules "above and beyond" agency requirements such as banning candidates from wagering on themselves.
- Unregulated offshore exchanges are expected to continue offering contracts on sensitive topics like war and military action, creating potential industry reputation confusion, whereas regulated markets aim to improve sports integrity by bringing data into the open.
- Regulatory guidance from the CFTC regarding settlement criteria for contracts involving the potential death of individuals in elections is anticipated, with a focus on ethical use for geopolitical risk.
- The regulatory landscape may change within two to three years depending on election outcomes, presenting political risk, though the industry expects to remain resilient against political backlash regardless of party control.
- Kalshi will likely prevent contracts involving war, terrorism, assassination, or death to avoid incentivizing harm, while Earthquake prediction markets are expected to continue operating with accuracy potentially exceeding scientific forecasts.
- Micro markets are expected to increase in frequency and dynamism, particularly in sports with faster-contract outcomes, and corporate earnings markets will likely expand from binary beat/miss contracts to micro-bets on specific financial presentation elements.
- Investors and traders are advised to monitor unregulated offshore markets to avoid missing investment opportunities, while individual decision-makers are expected to use prediction markets as a supporting data point for significant personal decisions rather than exclusively.
- Prediction markets will consistently provide probabilistic outcomes rather than binary results, meaning they present likelihoods rather than definitive "right or wrong" assessments.
- Sportsbook operators may enter the prediction market space to varying degrees, and consumers in all 50 states are expected to gain access to derivative products as an alternative in jurisdictions where traditional sports betting remains restricted.