Panel, Conference Presentation
The Future of Work: How to Survive and Thrive Amid Creative Disruption
Milken InstituteJody Miller, Beth Steinberg, Alexander Santamon, Diana O'Brien, Peter Grauer, John Bischke
- The workforce composition is projected to shift significantly by 2025, with millennials expected to comprise 75% of the workforce, while a massive wave of baby boomer retirements is imminent; consequently, over half of organizational work is predicted to be performed by non-employees, and individuals may hold up to 11 jobs before age 50.
- Employee tenure is forecasted to decrease drastically, with three to five years considered a lucky duration and seven years a dream, rendering the traditional model of hiring and retaining talent for 25 years obsolete in Silicon Valley, while employees must relearn skills every four to six years to remain relevant.
- Organizations are predicted to need 50% of their workforce in alternative career models within the next few years, designing their own paths rather than following traditional tracks, as the relationship between employers and employees evolves into a reciprocal arrangement where both owe something to the other.
- Companies that fail to prioritize talent acquisition with the same sophistication as sales or engineering teams, treat talent development with insufficient time, or do not quickly promote entry-level staff are expected to lose the talent war, fail to fill leadership pipelines, and struggle with profitability and revenue per employee.
- Future success depends on establishing a higher purpose, creating an extraordinary work environment, and fostering intimacy to attract diverse workforces; conversely, firms that do not address unconscious bias, provide flexibility for part-time workers, or empower diversity officers are expected to underperform in decision-making and fail to retain women.
- Significant skill gaps are anticipated in scientific sectors like aerospace, pharma, and consumer goods as boomers retire, necessitating that companies bridge knowledge gaps by re-engaging retired populations and aligning recruiting strategies with K-12 and university preparation.
- Labor laws are predicted to evolve to protect independent contractors who may be reclassified as employees, and the gap between those with 21st-century skills and those without is expected to widen, creating a larger divide between "haves" and "have-nots."
- To develop leaders quickly and inexpensively, companies must adopt guerrilla learning, holacracy, project-based management, and simulation-based coaching, while also providing personal boards of advisors and opportunities for peer teaching; failure to do so is expected to result in a lag behind Silicon Valley innovation and an inability to scale.
- Organizations that do not align with the next generation's desire for ownership, purpose, and "work-life fit" designs, or those that rely solely on employee referrals without diversifying pipelines, are expected to lose talent to competitors offering better engagement or financial incentives.
- It is predicted that diversity discussions will become obsolete in ten years due to increased women in leadership, yet companies currently must address the "rank and yank" approach to build strengths and ensure they can access untapped labor forces through telecommuting and part-time models.
- The average turnover rate of four years suggests people will not remain in a role for 10 years, prompting a shift from "owning talent" to "accessing talent," where companies that do not use data to predict future talent outcomes or invest in the "connective tissue" of former colleagues are expected to fall behind in recruiting and marketing efficiency.
- Manufacturing businesses from Japan are predicted to move to Mexico, impacting investment strategies, while executive education is expected to be fundamentally different in five to ten years as organizations adapt to the "race without a finish line" of diversity and the need for continuous, reciprocal professional growth.