The Mobile Web: Creative Disruption
Milken InstituteJonathan Spalter, Kit Beal, Corey Andrejka, Marion Brownstein, David Carr, David Plylar
- Mobile connectivity is expected to advance rapidly through 4G LTE adoption, with global data traffic following an explosive "hockey stick" growth pattern.
- Per-capita connected devices via the Internet of Things are projected to reach nine within the next few years, while the total number of connected devices worldwide is expected to hit 50 billion by the end of 2020.
- The app economy is projected to reach a $25 billion market size, with the global mHealth applications market expected to reach nearly $12 billion by 2018.
- Approximately 2 billion people are projected to transition directly to mobile internet access without ever using a PC, with phone prices averaging around $35, particularly in the developing world.
- The U.S. is expected to maintain the highest per capita smartphone usage, while global adoption accelerates in developing regions, with video driving two-thirds of current mobile web traffic.
- The primary emerging market for mobile networks is shifting from people to "things," with device connections expected to increase by a factor of 10 to 100.
- Through small cell technology, throughput on existing spectrum is expected to increase by an order of magnitude within the next few years.
- Future business models will adapt to extremely low data usage of 1-2 megabytes per month in exchange for significantly lower fees, avoiding standard data subscriptions.
- Healthcare delivery is expected to be revolutionized by eliminating waiting times and increasing rural access, with government incentives shifting from desktop tools to mobile technologies and FDA processes updating to match mobile technology changes.
- Security innovations are anticipated to emerge within the next couple of decades to address limitations of passwords, IDs, and biometrics in a highly connected lifestyle.
- Success in the next internet era will depend on entities' ability to manage a two-order-of-magnitude increase in personal data, with new business models normalizing data sharing and smart device integration.
- Significant risks include the need for enhanced intellectual capacity among scientists, engineers, and researchers to sustain innovation cycles, as well as the necessity to secure the electromagnetic spectrum infrastructure.
- The next three years are expected to be the most significant period for human communication and knowledge access, driven by connecting 2 billion new people to the internet.