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Bloomberg Television11 min

Ukraine Peace Push Turns to NATO and Donbas

Becca Wasser, David Gura, Christina Ruffini

Interview, Fireside Chat
  • Ukraine is projected to require future security guarantees, potentially including NATO membership or equivalent arrangements, to ensure territorial sovereignty, though the alliance cannot admit Ukraine while active conflict persists due to Article 5 limitations.
  • A referendum on territory or security terms is currently uncertain due to the lack of elections since combat began, and European allies doubt the viability of Ukraine ceding the entire Donbas region.
  • Proposals trading territory for security guarantees are viewed as potentially favoring Moscow, and achieving NATO consensus on such terms is complicated by varying threat perceptions and risk tolerances among member states.
  • The conflict, approaching its fifth year, is expected to end on terms that do not compromise Ukraine's sovereignty or European security architecture.
  • Russian territorial advances are projected to slow as recent capture rates have declined relative to previous years, though Russia faces significant recruitment challenges where losses outpace recruitment efforts.
  • Continued outages of Starshield and Starlink are expected to shift the battlefield balance in Russia's favor, potentially granting Moscow a more advantageous negotiating position.
  • Recent shuttle diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is not certain to alter battlefield conditions amidst ongoing missile barrages and connectivity outages.
  • Following the conflict, the United States is expected to maintain engagement in the Middle East with a narrower definition of core interests rather than a complete withdrawal.
  • The U.S. military is not anticipated to return to large formations of expensive equipment at previous bases due to operational risks from Iranian threat capabilities, favoring smaller, diffuse installations instead.
  • Gulf States are expected to assume greater security agency within a new regional architecture, contingent upon allies providing access, overflight, and basing opportunities.
  • U.S. force projection from European bases is anticipated to increase as a reduced American presence in the Middle East requires leveraging European locations.
  • The United States may reduce some commitments to NATO while simultaneously seeking access and overflight rights at European bases.